Though Finding Dory is almost certain to lose its top spot next weekend when the animated Secret Life of Pets opens, it will soon be the highest-grossing film of 2016 in North America. An estimated total $50.5 million for the four-day weekend puts Dory’s domestic total north of $380 million, and the film will pass $400 million during the week and easily slide past Captain America: Civil War’s $405 million domestic total by this time next week. Shrek 2’s domestic record total for an animated film ($441 million) is also in serious jeopardy thanks to Finding Dory’s extraordinary “legs.” Dory’s 3-day $41.9 million total is the best third weekend showing ever by an animated film.
Clearly Finding Dory has the potential to set all sorts of box office records for an animated film, but we will have to wait quite some time for the final worldwide tally because the film has had a very slow rollout overseas—and of course, there are no guarantees that foreign audiences will find the film as charming as North Americans have, though it should be said the Pixar films are generally very well received in foreign markets.
David Yates’ The Legend of Tarzan opened with a 3-day total of $38.1, well above the expectations of many analysts who had it pegged to debut under $30 million. Is this that much anticipated “big win” for Warner Bros.? Not so fast, with a huge production cost of $180 million, this new Tarzan film’s North American debut fell woefully short of what a film that costs that much needs to earn in the world’s #1 cinema market, and it appears that the movie will have to do extremely well overseas just to break even. In fact The Legend of Tarzan will have to earn at least $450 million worldwide to get out of the red, which would make it the highest-grossing Tarzan film ever (not adjusted for inflation).
The Legend of Tarzan opened in 19 markets, finishing #1 in Russia and #2 in South Korea as it earned $18.1 million overseas. Part of the reason that analysts were wary of the new Tarzan film was a raft of poor reviews from the critics, who were rated as only 35% positive in their assessments of the film according to review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. Opening weekend audiences however gave the film a solid “A-“ CinemaScore, so there is hope that this incarnation of Tarzan, which stars Alexander Skarsgard and Samuel L. Jackson, will be able to stay in theaters during this heavily competitive summer movie season.
Opening weekend audiences for The Legend of Tarzan were almost evenly split between the sexes (51% female) and decidedly older (70% over 25, and 55% over 35). Viewers who were under the age of 18 gave Tarzan an “A+” CinemaScore, demonstrating yet again the disconnect between movie critics and actual moviegoers.
|
Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): July 1-3, 2016 |
||||||
|
Film |
Weekend Gross |
Screens |
Avg./Screen |
Total Gross |
Wk# |
|
|
1 |
Finding Dory |
$41,900,542 |
4,305 |
$9,733 |
$372,250,144 |
3 |
|
2 |
The Legend of Tarzan |
$38,135,000 |
3,561 |
$10,709 |
$38,135,000 |
1 |
|
3 |
The Purge: Election Year |
$30,870,000 |
2,796 |
$11,041 |
$30,870,000 |
1 |
|
4 |
The BFG |
$19,584,969 |
3,357 |
$5,834 |
$19,584,969 |
1 |
|
5 |
Independence Day: Resurgence |
$16,500,000 |
4,091 |
$4,033 |
$72,657,073 |
2 |
|
6 |
Central Intelligence |
$12,330,000 |
3,166 |
$3,895 |
$91,767,074 |
3 |
|
7 |
The Shallows |
$9,000,000 |
2,962 |
$3,038 |
$35,251,647 |
2 |
|
8 |
Free State of Jones |
$4,134,000 |
2,781 |
$1,487 |
$15,199,711 |
2 |
|
9 |
The Conjuring 2 |
$3,850,000 |
2,008 |
$1,917 |
$95,283,538 |
4 |
|
10 |
Now You See Me 2 |
$2,950,000 |
1,788 |
$1,650 |
$58,689,445 |
4 |
That divide was also apparent in the reaction to The Purge: Election Year, the third film in the anarcho/fantasy/horror series that posits a society that sets aside one night a year during which crimes go unpunished. The generally horror film-averse critics surveyed on Rotten Tomatoes couldn’t rate The Purge: Election Year as “fresh,” yet audiences gave the film a solid (for a horror movie) “B+” CInemaScore.
The Purge series has been remarkably consistent in its openings. The first Purge earned $34 in 2013, while Purge: Anarchy brought in $29 million in 2014 (and, it should be noted, was a much better film and ended up earning more than its predecessor and essentially revitalized the franchise). The Purge: Election Year has a timely hook (a presidential race in which one of the candidates vows to eliminate the Purge Night), so its success (by Monday it will have earned four times its production cost of $10 million) should come as no surprise.
The news was not so upbeat for the other major nationwide debut, Stephen Spielberg’s BFG, which was produced by Disney at a production cost of $140 million, but earned just $19.3 million for the 3-day weekend and an estimated $23.6 million for the 4-day holiday frame. Based on a novel by Roald Dahl (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, James and the Giant Peach), the BFG is a family-oriented fantasy that opened in the considerably shadow of Finding Dory as Disney provided its own competition once again. Given that major films opening over the July 4th weekend in the height of the highly competitive summer season typically end up with about twice their 4-day total for their entire run, the BFG looks like a major money loser, especially since it will be facing direct competition for the family audience in coming weeks with the debuts of The Secret Life of Pets, Ice Age: Collison Course, and Ghostbusters.
Families made up 60% of the opening weekend audience for the BFG, which skewed female (54%) and gave the film a solid “A-“ CinemaScore. Solid word-of-mouth and good reviews (71% positive on Rotten Tomatoes) should give the BFG a chance to make up some ground domestically, but it will be up to international audiences (in markets where the film is rolling out slowly) to save Disney from a giant-size vat of red ink.
Independence Day: Resurgence, which bombed in its debut last weekend, suffered a dismal drop of 60% as it earned just $16.5 million over the 3-day weekend. With a domestic total of just $72.7 million so far, this $165 million would-be blockbuster will need major overseas “foreign aid” to stave off the red ink.
Warner Bros.’ action comedy Central Intelligence dropped just 32.4% over the 3-day weekend as it brought its domestic total to $91.8 million. With global earnings so far of $122 million Central Intelligence appears to be a modest hit for Warners, which needs a big boost from Suicide Squad to jolt the studio out of its rare case of the summer doldrums.
The modestly budgeted horror films The Shallows, which has earned $35.3 million and finished at number 7 this week, and The Conjuring 2, which has brought in $95.3 million, look like they will be solid moneymakers for their respective studios, which is good news for horror fans, who should be able to look forward to similar films debuting in the midst of the summer season next year.
Be sure to check back here next weekend as two new films open nationwide, the family-targeting animated comedy The Secret Life of Pets, and the R-rated comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates.
