Toy shipments for the holidays are down 13% vs. 2011, according to global trade research firm Panjiva, which counts container shipments, as reported by the New York Times.  The level of shipments is the lowest it’s been since 2007, according to the report.

Toy sales were running 5% to 6% below 2011’s as the holiday season opened (see "Toy Sales Soft"), so perhaps some of the pessimism as reflected by lower shipments was justified. 
But with fierce price competition (see "Amazon Winning Toy Price War") and tight inventory, it appears likely that there will be some money left on the table in the toy business by the end of the season, with some early sellouts on the hottest toys expected.