The general consensus in Hollywood is that The Dark Knight will give up its box office crown this weekend.  Even a modest 35% drop will bring the latest Batman film to $17 million, which isn’t likely to be enough to remain in the top spot for the fifth straight week.  The most successful Batman film ever, which will enter the fray with a box office total close to $455 million, can still count on sold out weekend Imax showings to bolster its total, but at this point it’s not likely to be enough to overcome the hugely-promoted Hollywood satire Tropic Thunder or the animated light sabers of Star Wars: The Clone Wars.

Tropic Thunder features a host of Hollywood heavyweights including Ben Stiller (who also directed the film), Jack Black, and Robert Downey, Jr. (in a daring role as a scenery-chewing method Australian actor playing a black American soldier), as well as cameos from Tom Cruise and Matthew McConaughey.  It has fared well with the critics (83% positive on Rotten Tomatoes) and should benefit from a solid promotional campaign that included a cover story in Newsweek.  The controversy over Tropic Thunder’s use of the word “retard” isn’t likely to keep the film’s target audience away; the film’s humorous barbs are directed at Tinseltown and the fictitious actors’ outsized egos, not the mentally challenged.

Tropic Thunder opened on Wednesday, which will dilute its weekend business somewhat.  And its $6.5 million bow was less than Pineapple Express, which earned over $12 million during its Wednesday debut last week (albeit with a lot more midnight screenings).  Even so, several analysts are predicting that Tropic Thunder will beat Pineapple Express’ debut weekend total of $23.2 million. 

The real wild card this weekend is Star Wars: The Clone Wars.  No one knows how much of the mammoth Star Wars audience will turn up to see a computer-animated side-story to the Star Wars saga.  Indications are that young Star Wars fans will show up, but the jury is still out on whether the legions of old Star Wars aficionados will make another pilgrimage to the theaters.  Some may go just in order to blog about what an abomination it is to replace the flesh-and-blood Star Wars characters with animated creations, but the potential performance for Star Wars: The Clone Wars remains unpredictable with estimates ranging from $15-25 million.