Chronicle, a movie that combines some of the hottest trends in Hollywood, appears to have managed a win on Super Bowl weekend with an estimated gross of $22 million, just ahead of the Daniel Radcliffe-starring, Hammer Films’ entry The Lady in Black, which earned an estimated $21 million.  The race is close enough (and the Super Bowl game on Sunday is enough of an x-factor) that no one should feel too secure about naming a winner until the final figures are announced on Monday.  This marks the first time in film history that two movies have opened with over $20 million during the Super Bowl weekend—and along with the help of some strong holdovers, the dynamic duo of debuting films powered the box office to a 31% gain over movie theater attendance during Super Bowl weekend in 2011.

 

Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): February 3 - 5, 2012
	Film	Weekend Gross	Screens	Avg./ Screen	Total Gross	Wk#
1	Chronicle	$22,000,000	2,907	$7,568	$22,000,000	1
2	The Woman in Black	$21,000,000	2,855	$7,356	$21,000,000	1
3	The Grey	$9,500,000	3,208	$2,961	$34,756,000	2
4	Big Miracle	$8,500,000	2,129	$3,992	$8,500,000	1
5	Underworld Awakening	$5,600,000	2,636	$2,124	$54,353,000	3
6	One For the Money	$5,250,000	2,737	$1,918	$19,668,000	2
7	Red Tails	$5,000,000	2,347	$2,130	$41,323,000	3
8	The Descendants	$4,600,000	2,038	$2,257	$65,523,000	12
9	Man on a Ledge	$4,500,000	2,998	$1,501	$14,700,000	2
10	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close	$3,925,000	2,505	$1,567	$26,793,000	7

 

Chronicle combines the currently popular vogue for the pseudo-realism of “found footage” with a storyline in which a group of teens suddenly develop superpowers.  While recent “found footage films” like The Devil Inside ($33.7 million) and Paranormal Activity 3 ($104 million) are rarely huge hits, because of their low cost of production, they are exceptional money makers for the studios involved.  Chronicle, which was produced for under $12 million, is already close to being in the black. The movie attracted a young audience (61% under 25) that was 55% male.  The film’s easily accessible storyline, “What would you do if you had superpowers?” is predicated on the relatable nature of its young cast, and under Trank’s direction the actors delivered.  Unlike the “found footage” horror movie The Devil Inside, which received an “F” CinemaScore, Chronicle managed an average “B” CinemaScore (which is actually average, but “good” for films in this genre), with the under 25 crowd giving it a “slightly” positive “B+” rating.  This raises the possibility that Chronicle, which earned a sterling 84% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, will have some “legs” at the box office.

 

Critics especially liked the way director Josh Trank anchored his superhero origin saga in a gritty blue collar reality, and many compared the film favorably to the X-Men movies and other teen superhero films.  While many of Hollywood’s previous attempts to bypass acquiring the rights to comic book superheroes by inventing new ones have proved less than successful, Chronicle has already exhibited enough potential to inspire more cinematic imitations of four-color sagas.  Fox did a good job of promoting Chronicle with what appears to have been a rather modest marketing budget. A last minute TV marketing push complemented a viral video (“Flying People in New York City”) that received over 6.5 million hits on YouTube.

 

Right behind Chronicle was The Woman in Black, which also managed to attract a youthful crowd (57% under 25) thanks to its ghost story subject matter and the presence of Harry Potter star Daniel Radcliffe.  The audience for what looks like it will be the revived Hammer Studio’s biggest hit skewed female (59%) and gave the film a mediocre “B-“ CinemaScore, though it should be noted that those under 25 gave it a more acceptable “B” grade.

 

Last week’s champ, The Grey,” slipped 51.7% and finished in third place as it earned an estimated $9.5 million.  This second week drop is much steeper than that of Taken, an action film that also starred Liam Neeson, but then the second weekend of Taken was up against the Super Bowl, which typically takes a major bite out of the action film audience.

 

The other new major widely released film, Big Miracle, a family-friendly “save the whales” saga opened in fourth place with an estimated $8.5 million.  While this sounds like bad new for the $40 million film, these sorts of movies tend to make money across a number of platforms as well as typically having fairly extended runs.  Working in Big Miracle’s favor is the film’s solid “A-“ CinemaScore and its 71% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes.  The audience was primarily female (68%) and younger (67% under 25).

 

In its third weekend in theaters Underworld: Awakening dropped 54.7% as it brought in $5.6 million and brought its domestic cumulative to $54.3 million.  Awakening is still faring better than the previous film in the series Underworld: Evolution, which earned $62.3 million during its complete domestic run in 2006.

 

The Katherine Heigl-starring Janet Evanovich saga One for the Money fell 54% in its second weekend, which basically means that this $40 million production, which has so far earned $19.6 million, is likely to be a disappointment for Lionsgate.

 

The George Lucas-produced Red Tails dropped 51.8% in its third frame and finished in seventh place with a domestic cumulative that now exceeds $41 million.  The thriller The Man on a Ledge, which opened last weekend, dropped just 43.8% in its second frame, but its opening was so weak that the $42 million film has earned just $14.2 million in ten days.

 

Check back here next week to see what happens next weekend when the 3-D re-release of Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace debuts in direct competition with the family adventure film Journey 2: The Mysterious Island as well as the Denzel Washington/Ryan Reynolds espionage thriller Safe House, and The Vow, a romantic comedy/drama starring Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams.