The latest tracking info on Joss Whedon’s The Avengers is a kind of double-edged sword for Disney.  The latest surveys of potential moviegoers show The Avengers tracking ahead of both Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, which opened with $158.4 million, and The Hunger Games, which debuted $152.5 million, in most categories.  These numbers suggest a huge opening, north of $150 million, the kind of performance that studio executives are loathe to predict, for fear that a $140 million bow could somehow be construed as “disappointing” and taint the rest of the film’s run.  So even though the numbers clearly indicate a mammoth opening, don’t expect any predictions from Disney or Marvel officials to come close to the $150 million mark.

 

But according to The Hollywood Reporter, the tracking numbers for The Avengers are very high and do support that sort of opening, with unaided awareness at 13% versus 11% for The Hunger Games and 10% for The Dark Knight.  “First Choice” for The Avengers is at 23%, and while it was the same for The Hunger Games, it was at 19% for The Dark Knight.  “Total Awareness” for The Avengers is at 85% compared with 76% for The Dark Knight and 74% for The Hunger Games.  “Definite Interest” for The Avengers is at 61% versus 62% for The Dark Knight and 54% for The Hunger Games.  The Avengers is tracking better among males than The Hunger Games and better among females than The Dark Knight.

 

The latest tracking numbers represent a jump in interest in the film when compared with the preliminary numbers that were released last week and showed the film opening in the $125 million range (see "'Avengers' Tracking for Big Opening").  Perhaps this increase in awareness is in response to a burgeoning marketing campaign that has been releasing clips right and left (see "Thor and Cap in Action-Packed 'Avengers' Clip").