Universal’s big budget action film Battleship, which is loosely based on the Hasbro board game, sails into action in North America this weekend after racking up ticket sales of $220 million overseas, where it has been open for a month (see "Battleship Opens Big, But Out of Sight").  Peter Berg’s Battleship is a wall-to-wall-action summer popcorn movie, but it faces its biggest test yet this weekend when it goes head-to-head with The Avengers, which has clearly established itself as the alpha predator of the early summer movie season. 

 

According to Variety, analysts tracking audience interest in upcoming movies say that Battleship is tracking like John Carter, which earned $30.2 million during its disappointing opening weekend.  Battleship has done slightly better than John Carter overseas ($215 million so far versus $200 million for John Carter), and most analysts figure the film will have enough popcorn movie appeal to bring in somewhere from $35-$42 million during its opening weekend.  Battleship is in real trouble if it opens as predicted, but analysts have been wrong before when assessing the chances of a poorly-reviewed (just 38% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), relatively mindless summer blockbuster like Battleship.

 

As for The Avengers, it will likely be over $400 million domestically by the time you read this.  During its second weekend The Avengers suffered a 50% drop, which was very close to The Dark Knight’s 53% tumble.  In its third weekend The Dark Knight dropped 43%, a similar drop for The Avengers would put it around $60 million and give it its third straight weekend box office triumph.

 

For Battleship, everything depends on the next two weekends.  Right now the $200 million film appears unlikely to earn its cost back at the box office, especially considering its fairly extensive promotional campaign, which included a full minute Super Bowl spot, and which in spite of a slew of promotional partners to help defray expenses, is not without cost for the studio.