Even with box office receipts running 13.8% ahead of last summer there are not enough customers in theaters for the number of big budget tentpoles the studios are releasing this year, with double the number of films with budgets over $100 million this summer as opposed to last.  With three certified bombs already this summer (After Earth, White House Down, and The Lone Ranger), the knives are out for what most analysts are predicting will be the next expensive flop, Universal’s R.I.P.D., which is based on the Dark Horse comic book series by Peter Lenkov and cost a reported $130 million to produce.
 
Why are analysts picking on R.I.P.D.?  Well the movie faces a lot of competition with 3 other films opening this weekend and it hasn’t been selling a lot of tickets in advance.  Initial estimates based on tracking 2 weeks out were around $15 million for the movie’s debut weekend, and the situation hasn’t improved as the debut approached.  With an anemic Thursday night take of $773,000, less than 25% of the total that the modestly budgeted ($30 million) horror movie The Conjuring earned on Thursday, the future doesn’t look bright for R.I.P.D. or for star Ryan Reynolds, who headlined last year’s Green Lantern, one of the few big comic book movies to flop.
 
Then there is Universal’s decision not to make R.I.P.D. accessible to critics until the very last minute.  This is almost always a very bad sign.  With the film opening today only 20 reviews have been posted on Rotten Tomatoes, and only 3 of those are positive.  Right now analysts are predicting R.I.P.D. to open with anywhere from $10 million to $20 million.  While anything about $20 million would have to be seen as a victory for Universal, it will take a lot more than that for the film to break even.  Don’t feel too bad for Universal, since the studio is having its best summer in years thanks to Fast and Furious 6 and the current worldwide hit Despicable Me 2.  Check back here on Sunday and see if any of the four newcomers can unseat Despicable Me 2 and capture the box office crown.