Expectations are certainly high for next weekend’s debut of Captain America: Civil War, with most analysts predicting at least a Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice level ($190 million) opening frame. Unlike Batman vs. Superman that had a lousy 27% positive rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, Civil War has a 94% positive rating (with 90 reviews in so far), which is the highest rating for a Marvel superhero release so far. There is little doubt that Civil War will open huge here next weekend, the question is, will it have more staying power than Warner Bros.’ BvS, which faded quickly after a spectacular opening weekend?
Civil War’s overseas debut was just a little bit shy of Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $201.2 million haul last May. Next week Civil War opens in Russia, Italy, Argentina, and China, so another boffo weekend overseas is expected.
It is likely that there is a bit of self-flagellation going on at the Mouse House over the proximity of The Jungle Book and Civil War’s release dates, but this sort of in-house competition is the kind of problem studios actually love to have. With Zootopia set to roll past Batman vs. Superman’s domestic total in the next few weeks, The Jungle Book looking like it will end its domestic run with Deadpool-like numbers ($350 million), and Civil War a near sure thing to join the $300 million club, it looks like Disney will have three of the top 4 films released in North America in the first half of 2016.
Other than The Jungle Book’s leggy hold, there was little to cheer about at the domestic box office. Key & Peele’s well-reviewed (75% positive), R-rated, action comedy Keanu did the best of a trio of widely-released newcomers, earning an estimated $9.34 million from 2,658 theaters for a modest $3,518 per-venue average. Keanu finished in a virtual dead heat with The Huntsman: Winter’s War, Universal’s fantasy flop, which dropped 52% from its disappointing opening numbers. There is little doubt that the modestly budgeted Keanu ($15 million) will earn its money back, but the same cannot be said for The Huntsman: Winter’s War.
Gary Marshall’s ensemble, “event-day” romantic comedy Mother’s Day opened weakly with just $8.3 million, a far cry from the robust $56.3 million debut of Marshall’s similarly themed and cast Valentine’s Day, which also starred Julia Roberts. Audiences gave Mother’s Day a so-so “B+” CInemaScore, which is a far better mark than the film got from the critics (just 8% positive on Rotten Tomatoes).
This weekend’s other new offering, the animated feature Ratchet & Clank, which is based on a video game and directed by Kevin Munroe (TMNT), bowed skittishly in seventh place with an estimated $4.8 million and a lousy $1,668 per-theater average. A mediocre “B” CinemaScore won’t help Ratchet & Clank’s chances of staying in theaters.
Zack Snyder’s Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice slid to #9 in its sixth weekend as it earned $3.8 million and brought its domestic total to $325.1 million. This weekend was pretty much the last shot for BvS in the domestic market given the direct competition it will receive from Captain America: Civil War next weekend.
Be sure to check back here next week to see what happens when the well-reviewed Captain America: Civil War finally debuts in the hero's eponymous homeland.