Reversing a trend that has seen audiences spurning sequels, The Conjuring 2’s estimated $40.4 million is just a bit lower than its predecessor’s $41.9 million bow. In fact The Conjuring 2’s total marks the biggest horror film debut since the original Conjuring in 2013, and the biggest ever for June. The original Conjuring, which had a budget of just $20 million, manage to earn $318 million worldwide, and The Conjuring 2, which has already earned $50 million overseas is well on its way to matching that total (though it should be noted that The Conjuring 2 cost $40 million to make, sequels tend to get more expensive). Unlike many horror films, the original Conjuring suffered very small week-to-week declines (all well under 50%) as it earned $137.4 million domestically in 2013, and since the well-reviewed (74% favorable on Rotten Tomatoes) Conjuring 2 received a solid A- CinemaScore (just like its predecessor), don’t expect The Conjuring 2 to fade out of the top ten quickly.
The strong performance of James Wan’s The Conjuring 2, coming on the heels of the helmer’s success with Furious 7, certainly validates Warner Bros.’ decision to hire Wan to direct the Aquaman movie, which is due in 2018 (see “Director Signed for Aquaman”).
Universal and Legendary’s Warcraft, which is based on the popular MMORPG, has to be considered a “bomb” here in the U.S. market. If it had come out a few years earlier, when the game was at its height of popularity, perhaps it would have done considerably better, but the $160 million production’s $24.3 million opening is well under those of legendary bombs like John Carter ($30.2 million) and Jack the Giant Slayer ($27.2 million), and since those two films earned $73 million and $65.2 million respectively during their entire domestic runs, it appears that Warcraft could finish with as little as $60 million considering that it will face stiff competition in the weeks ahead.
That kind of domestic performance means that Warcraft will have to earn at least $450 million worldwide to break even. Fortunately the film is doing very well in China where it has received the widest distribution ever for an “American” film, since Legendary is own by Dalian Wanda, who controls more screens than anyone in the Chinese market (see “Things to Come Dept.: Wanda Buys Legendary”). Aided by Wanda’s expertise in marketing to the Middle Kingdom, the Warcraft movie has earned a record $156 million in five days. Elsewhere overseas the film, which has been rolling out for several weeks as earned $101.5 million, $29.8 million of which came this past weekend. So far Warcraft has earned $286 million worldwide, and it appears that the future of the cinematic portion of the Warcraft franchise will depend on whether or not the movie will continue to draw well overseas, particularly in China. It appears that if there will be a sequel, it would have to have a much smaller budget.
With a critical rating of just 27% positive on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, Warcraft faces tough sledding here in North America. Opening weekend audiences were 55% male, and 53% were loyal WoW game players. There is a glimmer of hope in the OK B+ CinemaScore that the film received, but the high percentage of game loyalists indicates that the property may have limited mainstream appeal. It is very likely that Warcraft, thanks to its strong performance in China, will displace Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time ($336 million worldwide) for the dubious distinction of the highest-grossing film based on a video game, though Angry Birds ($312 million currently) may get there first.
Third place went to the John M Chu’s caper film Now You See Me 2, which earned an estimated $23 million, and also bucked the “anti-sequel” trend by coming in a respectable distance behind the first Now You See Me’s debut total of $29.4 million. The question is, can the sequel come close to matching the original’s leggy domestic run that netted $117 million (and $351 million worldwide)? So far Now You See Me 2 has earned $22.8 million overseas for a worldwide total of $45.8 million. The $90 million film earned a solid A- CinemaScore, which should help its longevity in theaters, but the competition will be fierce in the coming weeks.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, one of those recently released sequels that has suffered (opening nearly 50% below its predecessor), dropped 58.1% as it earned an estimated $14.8 million, bringing its domestic total to $61 million. The 2014 Turtles reboot slipped 56% in its second frame, so Out of the Shadows’ drop isn’t that much worse on a percentage basis, the problem remains that the film opened much lower. With a global total of $116.4 million and a production cost of at least $135 million, this franchise is clearly in trouble, and will likely require yet another “rebooting.”
Next comes another underperforming sequel, Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse, which slipped 56.2% as it earned an estimated $10 million bringing its domestic total to $136.4 million. Apocalypse’s domestic total has now surpassed that of The Wolverine ($132 million), though not if inflation is taken into account, but it is falling harder in its third frame than its predecessor X-Men: Days of Future Past (-53%), and it appears that Apocalypse will have a hard time matching the original X-Men’s unadjusted domestic total of $157 million. Fortunately, Bryan Singer’s latest X-Men film is doing far better overseas, where it has earned $342 million for a global total of $478.5 million—but with a production budget of $178 million, the massive production won’t be very profitable for Fox, given the lower box office percentage that the studios receive from foreign exhibitors.
The romantic drama Me Before You continues to be a modestly successful exercise in counterprogramming as it slipped 50%, earning $9.2 million and bringing its total to $36.8 million, while the Angry Birds Movie dropped just 35% as it earned $6.7 million on its way to a domestic finish of around $110 million.
Disney’s disappointing Alice Through the Looking Glass earned just $5.5 million as it brought its domestic total to $62.4 million. Though it is doing somewhat better overseas ($151 million), this $170 million production will be a big loser for Disney, which also should have 2016’s first $400 million-earner in the domestic market next weekend, when Captain America: Civil War, which currently stands at $397 million, should accomplish the feat.
Speaking of next week, be sure to check back here to see how two new films with excellent prospects actually fare at the box office as Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel, Finding Dory, opens along with the action comedy Central Intelligence, which stars Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart.