We've now had some time to fill in our year-over-year numbers (we started with November, see 'November Comics and Graphic Novel Orders up 8% over Last Year') for initial U.S. comic orders to Diamond Comic Distributors from pop culture stores, and the results show a blah third quarter followed by robust growth in the first two months of the fourth.  Orders declined 1% in the third quarter of 2001 compared to the third order of 2000, with 15% growth in graphic novels and a 3% drop in comics.

We reported an 8% year over year growth rate for November 2001 vs. 2000.  October turned out to be even stronger, with orders growing 11% year over year.  This fits with anecdotal reports that the summer was very strong in comic stores; orders for the fourth quarter were being placed as retailers were selling out over the summer.  With Dark Knight Strikes Again products in the pipe for December, this year should have a great finish (see 'Comics Big Two Duke It Out in December').     It's also worth noting that due to the summer sellouts, the final year over year numbers for third quarter could look better than they do here, perhaps by enough to push the rate of change positive.   

Here are the numbers for July through November.  These are year over year rates of change for 2001 vs. 2000. 

                                      Comics               GNs              Total

We're working on the year over year numbers for the first half of the year, as well as year over year comparisons for publishers.  We'll be getting December numbers within the next few weeks, and we'll be able to put the whole year together for you. 

Our analysis is based on a combination of the information Diamond releases in Diamond Dialogue and actual order numbers provided to ICv2 from publisher sources.  By plugging in the circulation numbers we know and using the Diamond order index, all of the circulation numbers for comics ordered through Diamond can be interpolated.  Since Diamond calculates its indexes based on initial advance orders from its US location only, we use publisher numbers for the same kind of orders to do our calculations.  This produces very accurate estimates of the initial orders for North American shops.  It is not an estimate of the total sales by publishers. 

Here are the limitations to our analysis: 

Marvel, DC, Dark Horse and Image distribute 100% of their comic store orders through Diamond.  Some other publishers distribute directly to stores or through other distributors and as a result this analysis may underestimate their sales. 

Marvel, DC, Dark Horse, and Image distribute some of their titles through channels other than comic specialty stores, e.g., newsstands and bookstores.  These quantity estimates do not reflect distribution through those channels. 

The quantities above do not include advance reorders, late orders, or reorders.

Most of the titles on this chart are also distributed to Europe by Diamond UK, which can account for significant sales for the publisher, ranging from 3-20% of the US numbers.   Sales by Diamond UK are not included in the numbers above.

Even given the above, however, it is probably safe to say that these quantities reflect 80% or more of the total North American sales by the publisher on most periodical comics.