Remember the World Football League of the 1970s or the United States Football League of the 1980s? Well, they challenged the NFL and ended up as costly failures. Now in rushes the XFL to sack the bloated NFL and stake a claim in the once exclusive preserve of professional football. Backed by Vince McMahon's WWF and NBC, the XFL starts its modest twelve-week season this Feb. 3. Will the new league succeed, and will it provide major merchandising opportunities for retailers? Experts are divided on the league's prospects (see below), but with teams labeled with such wonderfully unPC monickers as the Chicago Enforcers, the Las Vegas Outlaws, the Memphis Maniax, the New York /New Jersey Hitmen, the Los Angeles Xtreme, the Orlando Rage, and the San Francisco Demons, logowear is sure to be in demand at least in the eight markets graced with XFL teams.
Cards by Topps
Trading cards should provide another opportunity, since the XFL made a wise decision in choosing only one trading card licensee. With just Topps producing cards, it will be easy for collectors to make their collections of XFL cards complete and there will be no disputing about which is the real rookie XFL card if some future gridiron great manages to make the move from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon.
Why it can succeed--
Expenses are low. Unlike the USFL, which competed with the NFL for players and incurred considerable salary expenses, the 8-team XFL is entirely owned the WWF and NBC, so there will be no competition among the teams for player's services. Each player will receive roughly the same $50,000 a year salary. Each player on the winning team earns an additional $2,500, and the players on the league championship team get $20,000 each. Total payroll cost for the entire league is less than 1/3 the cost of a single NFL team's payroll.
TV exposure is guaranteed. NBC, shut out by the NFL, has nowhere else to go for professional football. NBC has made a major commitment to XFL as the lead-in to Saturday Night Live, and the XFL will also appear once a week on UPN and TNN. Plus having Minnesota's Governor Jesse Ventura as the color commentator for the XFL broadcasts is perfect casting for the upstart league.
Expectations are low. According to Business 2.0, NBC would be happy with ratings of 4.5 for the Saturday night XFL broadcasts. This would place the XFL somewhere in the 90s with #1 being the most watched show of the week.
will be part of the appeal
Bells and whistles. Television coverage will be like Monday Night Football on steroids, with all players miked all the time, cameras everywhere (including the locker room), and reality television-like coverage of cheerleader/player/fan interaction.
Back to the old school, sort of. It's back to the future for the XFL rules with no fair catches on punts or 'in the grasp' whistles trumpeting a return to old school football. These rules and the smashmouth attitude are brilliantly encapsulated in television commercials featuring bruising ex-linebacker Dick Butkus, whose swaggering presence at a frozen Soldier's Field ties the XFL rules to the NFL's golden age. This heartfelt reverence for the past doesn't, of course, extend to banning the lengthy, often choreographed end zone celebrations and sack dances which weren't a part of Lombardi-era football, but which promise to be given more attention than ever in the XFL's campaign against the 'No Fun League.
The X factor. In the era of 'extreme' sports there can be no better name for the league than the 'XFL.' The ubiquitously intrusive, reality television-based camerawork, the in-your-face celebration of brutality, both testify to the fact that the creators of the XFL are hyper-sensitive to current trends. In the long term the XFL will have to adapt or appear dated, but right now they are on top of the times.
Why it might not--
Attendance woes. Things may go well at first, but how often will fans tolerate the brutal weather of February and March in Chicago and New York? Will wrestling fans, many of whom have directly rejected pro football in favor of wrestling, watch the XFL just because it's sponsored by the WWF? Will football fans want to watch the antics and posturings of a bunch of guys who weren't good enough to make it into the NFL?
It won't develop stars. With its set salary structure what's to prevent players from absconding to the NFL as soon as they distinguish themselves? The vast majority of XFL players undoubtedly harbor dreams of moving on to the 'next level.' Given what has happened to Kurt Warner and others from the World League or Warren Moon and Doug Flutie from Canadian football, it is probable that the XFL will allow some late bloomers to show their stuff and go on to great careers, but given the XFL's 'open season on quarterbacks' approach, few of these players are likely to be signal callers.
Where's the line?
In general the eight XFL franchises have picked some exceptional young coaches -- generally drawn from the lower ranks of NFL assistant coaches---who know how to coach professional football. Will their efforts be overshadowed by the trappings of the WWF's particular sort of reality television? As time passes and the need to bolster some sagging franchise appears, how far will XFL's marketing shock troops go? They're already hinting at cameras in the cheerleaders' locker room. How far can they go without turning off the old school NFL fans that they're supposedly trying to attract? Calibrating just how far to go is going to be key to determining the ultimate success of the XFL in attracting audiences, advertisers, and licensees.