While there's nothing much shakin' on the big screen until May (with the possible exception of the mammoth-hunting 10,000 B.C. or the post-apocalyptic virus-themed Doomsday), after that the competition gets hot and heavy and doesn't begin to let up until the end of August. An extraordinary number of films with strong ties to comics, graphic novels and major pop culture properties are debuting over the next twelve months. While there are a number of potent releases set for the rest of 2008 (and the first quarter of 2009), because of the writers' strike (and the possibility of a strike by the Screen Actors' Guild this summer) the studios' 2009 slates are currently in near total flux and it may well be 2010 before we see a film schedule like this again.
Of course, even with the release of a DVD providing retailers with a second shot at moving merchandise, predicting which movie will spur sales of books, toys or trading cards remains a difficult proposition. Blockbusters such as the Spider-Man movies or Transformers have proven their ability to have a huge impact on the toy category, but their influence on graphic novel sales appears to be less pronounced, while a small movie with relatively low attendance like Ghost World can spur the sales of lots of graphic novels. But this much is clear. In 2006 Alan Moore and Dave Lloyd's V for Vendetta, which benefited from the release of a feature film adaptation ($70.5 million at the domestic box office), was the number one graphic novel in North America (in dollar sales), while in 2007 Frank Miller's 300 took the top spot (in dollars) thanks to Zack Snyder's hugely popular film adaptation ($210.6 million domestically). Will something similar happen in 2008? Perhaps not, but don't bet against Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons' Watchmen topping the charts in 2009 thanks to Zack Snyder's Watchmen film that is due out next March.
While both V for Vendetta and 300 debuted during March, no film due out this month has that sort of potential. Retailers selling children's books could benefit from the Doctor Seuss-inspired Horton Hears a Who (March 14th), and those that deal in Asian horror movies on DVD might get a slight bounce from the March 21st release of the remake of the 2004 Thai film Shutter, but this year's March releases represent a real comedown from past years'. The popularity of the superhero film genre has already resulted in a number of uninspired parodies and Superhero Movie (March 28th) looks like it will be the latest example of this (so far) undistinguished subgenre.
April provides few real opportunities, though Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay, which mixes stoner comedy with some political content, should appeal to a good portion of the young male audience that supports superhero films.
Iron Man, which opens on May 2nd, provides the first real merchandising opportunity of the year. A lot is riding on this film, the first to be produced by Marvel Studios. Marvel has put a major effort behind this film, backing it with a potent advertising campaign that included a Super Bowl ad and which will kick into high gear as the release date approaches thanks to an effort that will easily surpass $50 million (see "Iron Man's Potent Promo Partners").
During the run-up to the film's opening Marvel will have ten key Iron Man graphic novels in stock, while Hasbro will release a full line of Iron Man Action Figures and toys, and Rittenhouse Archives is producing Iron Man movie trading cards (see "Iron Man Movie Cards"). Top Japanese model maker Kotobukiya is also creating high-end collectible figures based on both Marvel Studios 2008 releases--Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk (see "Kotobukiya Gets Marvel License").
Just two weeks after Iron Man opens Disney is preparing to release The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian on May 16th. The first Narnia film, which debuted in December of 2005, earned nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars worldwide and quickly established C.S. Lewis Narnia as the second most successful fantasy film franchise in history (after Tolkien's Lord of the Rings). Jakks Pacific's Play Along Toys Division has developed a full line of toys based on the Prince Caspian film and bookstores can expect to see demand for C.S. Lewis' Narnia novels to rise dramatically.
The next week the eagerly-awaited fourth film in the Indiana Jones franchise opens for the Memorial Day weekend on May 22nd. Topps has trading cards and Hasbro has Indy toys, while Dark Horse has a comic book adaptation of the movie plus a new Indy comic series, and Del Rey has a "Making-of" volume (see "Indiana Jones Special Edition DVDs").
June is also a very strong month. It starts out with Dreamwork's heavily merchandised Kung Fu Panda (Inkworks has trading cards -- see "Inkworks Has Madagascar Sequel") on June 6th, which is followed a week later on June 13th by Marvel Studio's second release, The Incredible Hulk. Expect Marvel to have plenty of Hulk graphic novels available and Hasbro to field a broad range of Hulk toys. Ang Lee's Hulk movie may have been a box office disappointment, but the Hulk toys performed well in spite of the movie, so expect Hasbro to make a major effort for the not-so-jolly Green Giant.
One of the summer's best comedy bets, Get Smart, starring Steve Carrell, debuts a week after the Hulk movie, and should be appeal to the same male demographic that likes superhero movies. With such a jam-packed summer schedule expect blockbuster movies to open big and drop-off fast as audience go for the next potential blockbuster.
One week later on June 27th two films of major interest to pop culture retailers open on the same day. Pixar's Wall-e is a robot saga, which given the studio's track record is as close to a sure thing as animated films get. Thinkway Toys has a number of Wall-e items (including remotely controlled robot figures) that are likely to be among the top toy releases of the year (Pixar's Cars has been one of the most under-rated toy properties of recent years). While Wall-e will undoubtedly bring in a youthful audience, Universal's Wanted should appeal to an older crowd. Mark Millar's unique twist on the superhero genre might turn out to be just what the slightly jaded superhero audiences are looking for; and if so, it could expose the property to a huge new audience that may be very anxious to read the original graphic novel from Top Cow.
July is almost as competitive as June. While Wanted and Wall-e don't get much competition over the Fourth of July weekend, Hellboy II: The Golden Army opens on July 11th. Dark Horse is supporting the film with a major publishing program including an Art of the Movie volume, plus loads of cool merchandise (see "Dark Horse Readies New Hellboy Merchandise"), while Mezco has a full lineup of Hellboy II Action Figures. Guillermo del Toro, the director of Hellboy II, is one of the most talented helmers working in the superhero/fantasy genre -- and his second Hellboy film could elevate the property to a new level.
But getting a strong second weekend box office performance could be tough for Hellboy II because Christopher Nolan's second Batman film, The Dark Knight, opens on July 18th. Expect Frank Miller's Batman: The Dark Knight Returns, a perennial bestseller, to get a major boost along with a number of other Batman graphic novels from DC. Mattel will have a vast array of Batman toys available and Warner Bros. is releasing the Batman: Gotham Knight DVD (see "Batman: Gotham Knight"), which should have enormous crossover appeal with anime audiences (all the segments in the animated film are produced by top anime studios and directors) and Batman fans. With a brilliant viral marketing campaign (see "The Dark Knight Poster Revealed"), The Dark Knight could well be the top superhero film of the summer.
But even The Dark Knight had better not rest on his laurels since Fox is releasing X-Files 2 on July 25th. The return of Mulder & Scully is sure to intrigue the legions of fans that made Chris Carter's quirky TV series the hit cult TV show of the 1990s -- and comic book retailers who remember that era can testify to strong interest in all things X-Files among comics fans.
Continued in Part 2 of this year's Best in Shows overview.
