The CEO of the world’s largest theater chain has forecast that James Cameron’s Avatar, which opens on December 18th, will earn $250 million during its run in theaters in Canada and the U.S.  Avatar is considered “a game-changer” by many because it is bringing cutting edge 3D technology to an adult audience, but Amy Miles, CEO of the Regal Entertainment Group, resisted putting that much weight on one film, telling The Hollywood Reporter, “I think from a film technology perspective, there's a lot of enhancements that are going to benefit the industry, but 3D is going to be successful whether Avatar is successful or not.”

Avatar will likely have to earn nearly a billion dollars worldwide in order to turn a profit.  Fox has admitted spending $230 million on the production, and many in Hollywood feel that estimate is very low.  In a recent report on Avatar on CBS’s 60 Minutes, Morley Safer estimated that the film’s cost was $400 million, which certainly could be accurate if promotional costs (estimated at $100 million) are included.  The rule of thumb is that a movie has to double its production and promotional costs to break even since the studios have to split the box office take with theaters (and foreign distribution deals typically mean the studios end up with even less than 50%).

Avatar’s estimated two-and-one-half hour running time will limit theaters to 5 shows a day (except during the first few days of release when some theaters will show the film round the clock).  The film will play in 3D at about 2,500 theaters on 3,500 screens.  It will also be shown in 2D in about 1,500 locations, though it is not at all certain that audiences will settle for the “flat” version of a film touted as the “avatar” of extra-dimensional filmmaking.  The lack of the third dimension could also hurt Avatar on DVD with 3D home entertainment systems still a year away (and it could be a decade or more before they gain much penetration in the home video market).

Still Fox is betting on Cameron who had the last laugh on all those experts who said that his expensive (for their time) productions such as Terminator 2 and Titanic couldn’t possibly make money.  Terminator 2 made 5 times its production budget worldwide and Titanic earned a record $1.7 billion worldwide gross.