Reports of a real horse race between Captain America: The First Avenger and the Harry Potter finale proved to be as erroneous as the notion of a sort of “superhero fatigue” that would scuttle the prospects of the fourth spandex saga of the summer.  Outperforming expectations Captain America earned an estimated $65.8 million, a total, which if it holds up, will narrowly beat Thor’s debut earnings of $65.7 million.  Cap helped power the box office to a second straight strong showing with the total of the top 12 films up a solid 15% from the same weekend in 2010, a gain that might also have been aided by an immense heat wave across much of the country that may have driven many to the cineplexes.

Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): July 22 - 24, 2011
	Film	Weekend Gross	Screens	Avg./ Screen	Total Gross	Wk#
1	Captain America: The First Avenger	$65,827,000	3,715	$17,719	$65,827,000	1
2	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$48,065,000	4,375	$10,986	$274,182,000	2
3	Friends with Benefits	$18,500,000	2,926	$6,323	$18,500,000	1
4	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$12,000,000	3,375	$3,556	$325,789,000	4
5	Horrible Bosses	$11,720,000	3,104	$3,776	$82,402,000	3
6	Zookeeper	$8,700,000	3,215	$2,706	$59,204,000	3
7	Cars 2	$5,726,000	2,668	$2,146	$176,445,000	5
8	Winnie the Pooh	$5,141,000	2,405	$2,138	$17,573,000	2
9	Bad Teacher	$2,600,000	2,034	$1,278	$94,355,000	5
10	Midnight in Paris	$1,899,000	621	$3,058	$44,878,000	10

 

While the dollar gap between Cap and Thor was very small, the star-spangled hero actually brought nine percent more folks to the theaters.  Only 40% of Cap’s total came from 3-D showings compared with 60% of the Norse God’s number.  Though the overall numbers for Cap were good, the outlook for 3-D grows increasingly bleaker.  As 3-D becomes more commonplace, fewer consumers are willing to shell out the extra three bucks.

 

Captain America’s audience was largely male (64%), which was very close to Thor’s percentage, but Cap improved on the Norse God’s performance in that Joe Johnston’s film attracted more young viewers.  Only 57% of Cap’s crowd was over 25 versus 72% for Thor.  Captain America: The First Avenger also received a solid “A-“ CinemaScore from first weekend moviegoers, which bodes well for “word-of-mouth.”

 

Does Cap’s strong debut mean that Marvel Studios has established another viable superhero franchise?  Well it may be premature to start prepping a sequel.  The film cost a reported $140 million to make, and while prospects look good, its performance overseas will likely seal its fate as a franchise one way or the other.  Paramount is rolling the film out rather slowly in the overseas markets, but it did open well in Italy, where it made $2.8 million, which is 16% more than the first Iron Man movie, but slightly less than Thor brought in.  With a worldwide total of $445.8 million Thor remains the top superhero movie of the summer worldwide.  The strong showings of Thor and Captain America certainly bode well for Joss Whedon’s Avengers movie, which will debut in early May next year when competition is generally slight, and which some analysts are already pegging at a domestic opening in the $150 million range.

 

But for Cap to take the 2011 superhero crown it will likely have to outperform Thor by a substantial margin domestically, which means it can’t afford the kind of titanic drop that hit the Harry Potter finale, which plummeted 71.6% in its sophomore session.  It is true that this was coming off of the film’s all-time record opening of $169.2 million and that it still managed to bring in a substantial $48.1 million, but it is clearly now the poster child for the “front-loaded” marketing-driven blockbuster of today.  But don’t let that precipitous drop make you lose any sleep over the fate of Warner Bros. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 remained the top film internationally as it brought in an impressive $121.3 million overseas to bring its global cumulative to $834.6 million, which is not a bad total after approximately ten days of release.

 

Aside from Captain America, the only other new release this weekend was the “R” rated comedy Friends With Benefits starring Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis.  This attempt at counter-programming earned an estimated $18.5 million, the lowest opening total of any of the recent spate of “R” rated comedies. Predictably it drew an audience that was 62% female and earned a mildly positive “B+” CinemaScore.  With a budget of $34 million, Sony is hoping that this comedy, which is eerily similar to the previously released No Strings Attached, will develop “legs.”

 

Meanwhile Transformers: Dark of the Moon fell 43.7% in its fourth weekend as it brought in an estimated $12 million to bring its year-to-date domestic leading total to $325.8 million.  The films at the back end of the top ten all posted modest declines, another indication that the mid-summer heat wave may have played a part in this weekend’s strong showing.

 

Next weekend the comic book-based Cowboys & Aliens directed by Jon (Iron Man) Favreau and bulging with star power from the likes of Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford debuts.  This genre mash-up is one of the summer’s real wild cards and it could present some formidable competition for the current box office champion.  Come back next week and find out right here.