Although back in 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End earned $153 million for the four-day Memorial Day weekend setting a record that still stands, this end-of-May weekend hasn’t been that kind to some Disney would-be blockbusters like Tomorrowland ($33 million), Prince of Persia ($30 million), and Alice Through the Looking Glass ($26.8 million), so the Mouse House may be happy with Dead Men Tell No Tales’ $62 million, which may reach $77 million for the full four-day holiday. But franchise fatigue was evident in the fourth Pirates film, Rob Marshall’s On Stranger Tides which sagged to $90 million for its 3-day opening in 2011, but six years on it is now clear that the Pirates franchise is on the downside here in North America. Even if it avoids the disastrous drop-off that plagued last year’s Memorial Day winner X-Men: Apocalypse, which made over 50% of its domestic gross in its first days of release, Dead Men Tell No Tales could end up with a domestic total roughly equal to the inflation adjusted totals of what previous films in the series made on their opening weekends.
Still there is hope for Disney’s supposedly “final” Pirates film in spite of the fact that it cost more than $200 million to make and millions more to market. That hope lies overseas, and Dead Men Tell No Tales may have a global total north of $300 million by the end of the 4-day weekend. Of course the studio’s take of a film’s gross is far less overseas, so Dead Men Tell No Tales will have to keep on performing overseas, but there is hope given a trend that has seen the North American percentage of the Pirates films global gross decline from 46.7% (Curse of the Black Pearl, 2003), to 39.7% (Dead Man’s Chest, 2006), to 32.1% (At World’s End, 2007), and finally down to 23.1% for On Stranger Tides.
The good news for Dead Men Tell No Tales here in the domestic market is the solid “A-“ CinemaScore that opening weekend audiences gave the film, a stark contrast to the movies current rating of only 32% positive on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. The film’s audience skewed male (53%) and a bit older with 63% of the audience over 25.
Second place went to another Disney film, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2, which declined just 42.6% for the 3-day weekend as it added $19.9 million to bring its total to $333.2 million. Guardians, Vol.2 should finish the Memorial Day frame with $24 million. The film’s global total has now passed $783.3 million, surpassing the global cumulative of the first Guardians film (not adjusting for inflation), making Vol.2 the #5 highest-grossing film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (not adjusting for inflation).
It certainly wasn’t good news for Paramount that Guardians Vol.2, which has been in theaters for four weekends, earned more than the R-rated comedy Baywatch could muster in its debut frame. Instead of the $40-45 million that many box analysts had forecast, Baywatch, which stars the usually bankable Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, earned just $18 million over the 3-day weekend, and looks to finish the 4-day frame with $22 million. That wouldn’t be too bad for an ordinary R-rated comedy, but this one cost at least $69 million to produce, and Paramount mounted a major campaign for the film with loads of TV ads. Part of the problem may actually have come from the “R” rating, which may have put off fans of the original Baywatch TV series, which avoided raunchy language and sexual situations while serving up acres of appealing bikini and speedo-clad flesh.
Baywatch certainly didn’t please the critics as the film’s 19% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes will attest, but opening weekend audiences, which skewed a bit female (52%) and was pretty evenly split demographically for an R-rated film with just 55% of the crowd over 25 (another indication that it didn’t connect with older fans of the 1990s Baywatch TV series).
Paramount is off to a terrible start in 2017 with a string of flops and underperformers that includes Rings, xXx: the Return of Xander Cage, Ghost in the Shell, and now Baywatch. The studio had better hope that Hollywood’s current case of “franchise fatigue” doesn’t extend to Transformers: The Last Knight, which is due in July. There is hope for Baywatch overseas, where it debuts in 31 territories next weekend. Though comedy doesn’t always travel well, the Baywatch TV series was popular all over the world, and The Rock is definitely a major international star, so we will see, but bombing in North America is never a good thing.
Dead Men Tell No Tales may have debuted 31% below its predecessor, but this week’s poster child for “franchise fatigue” is Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant, which fell 71% from its disappointing debut as it earned just $10.5 million to bring its domestic total to $57.3 million. This drop comes in spite of a sterling (especially for a horror film) 71% positive rating from the critics, and the $97 million film’s excellent production values.
The YA novel adaptation Everything, Everything is still connecting with is young female audience as it dropped just 47.3% as it earned $6.2 million to bring its domestic total to $21.5 million. Don’t be surprised if this $10 million production ends up earning more here in North America than Guy Ritchie’s $175 million King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, which dropped 55% to #8 in its third weekend, and has now earned just $33.9 million in 17 days.
Disney’s live-action Beauty and the Beast finished at #10, marking its eleventh straight weekend in the top ten as it became the first film of 2017 to surpass $500 million, only the eighth movie ever to accomplish that feat. Right now it seems unlikely that any film will seriously challenge Beauty and the Beast for to 2017 honors until the next Star Wars film debuts in Q4. But globally it appears that Beauty will soon be surpassed by The Fate of the Furious, which will likely rule the global charts until December as well.
Next weekend will see the highly-anticipated debut of a film featuring a superhero who has sold more books in the past few years than other in Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie as well as what has turned out to be the most highly-anticipated film of the summer, Warner Bros.’ Wonder Woman. Once again the WB marketing staff has outdone themselves and a huge audience appears poised to see the Amazing Amazon’s standalone effort. Will Wonder Woman be that breakout film that has eluded Warner Bros. and DC since the final film in Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight Trilogy?
