For a movie that cost between $250 million and $300 million to produce and up to another $100 million to promote worldwide, expectations for John Carter's North American opening are decidedly modest--in the $25 to $35 million range. While it is very hard to see how the film will ever make money for the studio, it is quite possible that it can surpass those estimates, especially since the film will open on 290 IMAX screens domestically (and a 194 internationally). The pricy IMAX 3D tickets will definitely help a bit, but at most they represent just 8% of the movie’s 3,749 locations.
In spite of the fact the film is based on a pioneering science fiction novel by Edgar Rice Burroughs and has been the beneficiary of major TV marketing campaign that included a Super Bowl ad, tracking polls continue to show limited mainstream awareness of the film (see “Will John Carter Be the Biggest Write-Off of All Time?”). The film’s best hope may be the international market where Hollywood spectacles are generally well-received, though the movie's lack of starpower could be a hindrance overseas. The film is launching in every major overseas territory (except China and Japan), so the worldwide verdict should be in fairly soon, though both domestically and internationally any hope this film has appears to be in the long term rather than short term—and word-of-mouth will be crucial.
Critics have been almost evenly split on director Andrew (Finding Nemo) Stanton’s first live action directorial effort, which currently has a 50% positive rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. Hardcore fans will flock to the theaters on Friday, so how well the film holds up on Saturday could provide a pretty good barometer on its ability to create positive buzz. Will audiences be fascinated by Stanton’s meticulous creation of a complex world with numerous highly distinct civilizations, or impatient with the film’s less-than-breakneck speed? Will they respond to Burroughs highly imaginative brand of science fiction that is more fantasy-based than rooted in reality, or will they find it hopelessly old fashioned?
If audiences find the spectacle of John Carter to their liking, it could gain momentum, though it will face considerable competition in just two weeks when the highly-anticipated adaptation of Suzanne Collins’ The Hunger Games opens. As for this weekend it is likely that John Carter will have to surpass expectations just to top the domestic box office, since if last week’s winner The Lorax drops 50% it could end up with a total of $35 million, which is on the high end of expectations for John Carter.
