Marvel's stock price fell nearly 12% on Monday and Variety is blaming the Hulk.  How can a film set a record for a June opening and still be considered a disappointment?  Variety points out that the box office take declined from Friday to Saturday and that the audience was 63% male -- two signs that the film may suffer a precipitous decline in its second weekend, because it doesn't have a broad appeal.  Variety even quoted one anonymous studio exec to the effect that Ang Lee's film could be 'a franchise killer...It might make money way down the line, but it's basically a push.  The goal was to kick off a franchise.'

There is little doubt that the Hulk will do well enough for Marvel to earn its capped gross participation percentage of 4-5%, which should yield $5 million for Marvel if the Hulk manages to do $100 million domestically and $150 million internationally.  The fear among investors is that the Hulk won't have enough legs to spur sales of licensed merchandise such as toys and videogames, which have to potential to earn Marvel millions more.

Time will tell if this bearish estimate of the Hulk's performance is correct.  Marvel's stock has actually declined in the wake of the openings of all of its major features including even Spider-Man.  The Hulk is doing better than projected in Asia and may do even better than expected internationally, where the film's artistic aspirations may be more appreciated.  Marvel's stock was hovering around $5 a year ago and closed at $18.75 after declining 11.6% on Monday.  Surely some of the sell off was profit taking and there was a lot of that on Wall Street on Monday as the overall market declined sharply.  It may be a stretch to place all the blame on the Hulk's broad green shoulders.

The wide spectrum of critical reaction to the Hulk makes predicting its future performance extremely difficult.  Will a $137 million art film based on a comic book be able to find a broad audience outside the confines of fandom?  Will there be a sequel?  On Friday USA Today noted that Ang Lee's collaborator James Schamus was working on concepts for another Hulk film.  With the unsettled situation at Universal--the studio that produced the Hulk is currently in the midst of being sold -- it's unlikely that there will be a quick decision on a second Hulk film.  A lot is riding on the Hulk's performance this coming weekend when the most daring summer tentpole film in decades faces major competition in the form of a truly conventional summer blockbuster, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle.