J.J. Abrams’ Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned an estimated $88.3 million to set a new third weekend record and lead the box office to its second highest January total ever.  With the comedies Daddy’s Home and Sisters performing well, and Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight going wide, the total weekend box office was estimated at $204.6 million, just four million shy of the January record set in 2009 when Avatar ruled the January box office.  By the middle of the week, The Force Awakens, which has already earned $740.2 million in just 17 days, will surpass Avatar’s domestic record of $765 million (not adjusted for inflation).

The Force Awakens has already broken more than 40 box office records, and by this time next week it will be the highest grossing film ever in North America (not adjusted for inflation).  For the first time in over 40 years, a movie directed by James Cameron, George Lucas or Steven Spielberg will not be in the number one spot on the “All Time Box Office Leaders” list.  Outside the U.S. The Force Awakens has earned $770.5 million for a global total of $1.51 billion, which makes it the sixth highest grossing film ever (not adjusted for inflation), and it should pass Avengers ($1.519 billion) and Furious 7 ($1.15 billion) this week, and will undoubtedly move past Jurassic World’s $1.66 billion total to become the #3 box office film of all time (not adjusted for inflation).  How The Force Awakens fares in China, the world’s second largest film market where it opens next weekend, will determine whether it will be able to challenge Titanic ($2.18 billion) or perhaps even Avatar’s global mark of $2.78 billion, though the accomplishing the latter seems extremely unlikely at this time.

The often-used phrase “not adjusted for inflation,” which no doubt annoys readers, is nevertheless extremely important in assessing the size of the audience for The Force Awakens.  The first Star Wars film earned $307.3 million in its original North American run in 1977, which translates to a domestic run of $1.2 billion at today’s ticket prices.  The Force Awakens has passed the original run totals (adjusted for inflation) of The Empire Strikes Back ($679 million), Revenge of the Sith ($510 million), and Attack of the Clones ($447.8 million), and it should pass Return of the Jedi ($697.3 million) and The Phantom Menace ($730.4 million), though matching the adjusted domestic total of the original Star Wars film appears unlikely at this time.

As for the immediate future, The Force Awakens will be the analysts’ choice to top the box office again next weekend, but the film’s future after that remains a bit murky.  Will enough fans return for return viewings to keep up the film’s record-setting pace?  We shall see over the next few weeks.

Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): January 1-3, 2016

Film

Weekend Gross

Screens

Avg./Screen

Total Gross

Wk#

1

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

$88,300,000

4,134

$21,359

$740,265,583

3

2

Daddy's Home

$29,000,000

3,342

$8,677

$93,684,495

2

3

The Hateful Eight

$16,240,000

2,474

$6,564

$29,577,963

2

4

Sisters

$12,580,000

2,978

$4,224

$61,703,640

3

5

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

$11,800,000

3,474

$3,397

$67,376,640

3

6

Joy

$10,400,000

2,924

$3,557

$38,721,460

2

7

The Big Short

$9,000,000

1,588

$5,668

$32,979,117

4

8

Concussion

$8,000,000

2,841

$2,816

$25,370,000

2

9

Point Break

$6,845,000

2,910

$2,352

$22,430,000

2

10

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2

$4,625,000

1,485

$3,114

$274,222,959

7


 

Meanwhile the star-powered, if formulaic, comedy Daddy’s Home dropped just 23% as it earned $29 million to bring its ten-day total to $93.64 million.  Right now it appears that Daddy’s Home could challenge the domestic totals other Ferrell hits like Talladega Nights ($148 million) and Elf ($173 million).

Quentin Tarantino’s western The Hateful Eight expanded from 100 theaters to nearly 2500, earning $16.2 million, which was good enough for third place.   Right now it appears doubtful that The Hateful Eight will be able to replicate the excellent box office showings of Tarantino’s two previous hits, Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained, but Tarantino is one of the few “marquee” directors, whose name above the title means something to a sizable segment of the movie-going population.  The key will be how audiences will respond to Alejandro Inarritu’s The Revenant, which stars Leonardo DiCaprio and opens wide next weekend.  The Revenant has been doing well in limited release, and the grim “winter western” is looking to appeal to much the same audience as The Hateful Eight.

The animated Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip, and Adam McKay’s adult-skewing financial collapse drama The Big Short both posted strong holds, while David O. Russell’s Joy, the Will Smith-starring NFL drama Concussion, and the remake of Point Break all posted larger declines during a weekend, which typically sees some of the smallest drops of the year across the board.

Charles Kaufman’s double-dome animated film Anomalisa opened in just four theaters and earned $140,000, while the re-release of Isao Takahata’s Studio Ghibli film Only Yesterday brought in $13K from just one theater.

Be sure to check back here next week to see if The Force Awakens can make it four weeks in a row as it faces competition from The Revenant, which goes wide, and the psychological horror film The Forest, which hopes to replicate the success of The Woman in Black.