The Walt Disney Company's historical film Pearl Harbor is poised for one of the biggest openings in box office history. Pre-release marketing numbers for the film have astounded industry experts, and while Pearl Harbor has little direct relevance for specialty retailers, a mammoth opening for Pearl Harbor could hurt Shrek and The Mummy Returns, films that have done well and do have a lot of tie-in merchandise for specialty retailers to hawk (see 'Shrek's Strong Opening' and 'Mummy Returns Boffo'). Bad enough weather in the Midwest and East Coast may drive enough people into the theaters to allow for a huge debut for Pearl Harbor and continued strong performances from Shrek and The Mummy Returns. If the total weekend box office goes over $180 million, there might be enough sales to please everybody.
Critics have done their best to torpedo the Disney war epic, with 15 out of 19 critics surveyed by the Rotten Tomatoes website finding the film 'bloated,' 'waterlogged,' and 'cheesy.' Nevertheless an astounding 95 per cent of the American public is aware of Pearl Harbor, and 43 per cent of those surveyed stated the film was their first choice film for this weekend. The latter is an unprecedented number and the main reason industry observers are predicting that Pearl Harbor will set a new record for a four-day weekend and lurch over the $100 million barrier to overwhelm the previous record-holding film, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which brought in$90.2 million over the Memorial Day weekend in 1997. With its nearly 3-hour running time Pearl Harbor may be its own worst enemy. Shrek and The Mummy Returns just might benefit from the overflow that can't fit into packed screenings of Pearl Harbor. It should be a very interesting weekend.
