As the North American box office awaited next weekend’s arrival of the summer season and its highly anticipated first “event” movie, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, there was a bit churn at the box office during a weak frame that saw the top 12 films earn 30% less than they did on the same weekend last year when The Jungle Book finished its second stint at the top of the charts with $61.5 million. The Fate of the Furious remained #1 with $19.4 million, but then things got interesting.  The comedy How To Be A Latin Lover came in second in spite of being in just over 1,100 theaters, and the South Indian epic Baahubali 2, which could be found on just 450 screens, appears to have surpassed the Internet saga The Circle, which stars Tom Hanks and Emma Watson and debuted in 3,163 venues.

In its last weekend at number one The Fate of the Furious dropped just 49.5% to add $19.4 million to bring its domestic cumulative to $192.7 million.  The Fate of the Furious has now earned over a billion dollars worldwide, which means that the film has made a whopping 82% of its total overseas (including a record $361 million from China).  Domestically Fate will soar over $200 million, but has no chance of getting anywhere in the neighborhood of its predecessor Furious 7, which brought in a franchise-high $353 million here in North America.

The biggest reason that Fate won’t do that much more damage at the domestic box office is the impending release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 next weekend.  Though Fate was initially thought to have opened over the $100 million mark, it actually made just $98.8 million, so it will be Guardians of the Galaxy 2 that will likely score 2017’s second $100 million+ debut, though topping Beauty and the Beast’s $174.7 million bow is unlikely.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 did get off to a solid start overseas earning an estimated $101.2 million from about 58% of the international market.  So far Guardians, Vol. 2 is about 57% ahead of the opening totals from the first Guardians, and about 50% ahead of Captain America: Winter Soldier.  Guardians 2 has yet to open in the increasingly important Chinese market or in Russia, Japan, or Korea.  Next weekend Guardians, Vol. 2 will open in 4,200 theaters here in North America and is expected to bring in as much as $150 million in its debut frame.

How to Be a Latin Lover is the latest release from Pantelion, which targets the growing Hispanic audience here in the U.S.  Latin Lover stars one of Mexico’s most popular actors Eugenio Derbez (Instructions Not Included) along with Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, Raquel Welch, and Raphael Alejandro, and, as befitting its international cast, was made available in both Spanish and English.  Latin Lover earned just over $12 million from 1,100 theaters for a solid $10,750 average.  Nearly 90% of the opening weekend audience was Hispanic, and they gave the film a solid “A” CInemaScore.  Women accounted for 55% of the attendees, who skewed older (75% over 25).

Third place went to another film targeting a specific audience.  Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earned an estimated $10.1 million from just 450 theaters for a spectacular $23,885 average.  Baahubali 2: The Conclusion is the sequel to the epic 2015 fantasy film Baahubali: The Beginning.  Both films were produced in Southern India in “Tollywood,” the Telugu language counterpart of Bollywood, the North Indian (Mumbai) center for the production of Hindi films.  Baahubali 2 tripled the opening numbers of Baahubali 1 here in North America, aided by 45 IMAX screens where the film brought in $1.8 million, a record for a foreign language movie on the mammoth screens here in North America.

Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): April 28-30, 2017
	Film	Weekend Gross	Screens	Avg./Screen	Total Gross	Wk#
1	The Fate of the Furious	$19,389,780	4,077	$4,756	$192,721,355	3
2	How to be a Latin Lover	$12,018,500	1,118	$10,750	$12,018,500	1
3	Baahubali 2: The Conclusion	$10,138,189	425	$23,855	$10,138,189	1
4	The Circle	$9,320,000	3,163	$2,947	$9,320,000	1
5	The Boss Baby	$9,050,000	3,739	$2,420	$148,465,584	5
6	Beauty and the Beast	$6,400,000	3,155	$2,029	$480,100,233	7
7	Going in Style	$3,580,000	2,761	$1,297	$37,319,770	4
8	Smurfs: The Lost Village	$3,315,000	2,554	$1,298	$37,734,501	4
9	Gifted	$3,300,000	2,215	$1,490	$15,830,025	4
10	Unforgettable	$2,345,000	2,417	$970	$8,883,819	2

This weekend’s most disappointing opening belongs to The Circle, James Ponsoldt’s adaptation of a David Eggers novel that stars Emma Watson, fresh off the tremendous success of Beauty and the Beast, and the always reliable Tom Hanks.  But both the critics (The Circle is only rated at 18% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), and opening audiences (who gave the film a dismal “D+” CinemaScore) apparently disliked this film a lot, which doesn’t bode well for its chances.  Opening weekend audiences skewed female (62%), and 44% of the crowd was between 18 and 34, so it appears that Watson did pull in some fans, just not enough of them, and those who came didn’t much like what they saw if that CinemaScore is to be believed.

The Circle’s $18 million production cost means that no one will lose a lot of money, but there was a fair amount spent on advertising to little apparent effect.

The fifth and sixth spots went to Dreamworks Animation’s Boss Baby, which just keeps chugging along (it has made nearly $150 million here and could finish in the neighborhood of $175 million), and Disney’s megahit Beauty and the Beast, which added $6.4 million in its seventh weekend to bring its 2017-leading domestic total to $480.1 million.  $500 million is still possible for Beauty, and its North American total may not be eclipsed until the next Star Wars film hits in Q4.

This week’s other new release Blumhouse’s micro-budgeted ($250K) street magician kidnapping thriller, Sleight, opened in just 565 theaters and earned a modest $1.7 million.  With a 72% positive rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, Sleight was by far the best-reviewed film that debuted this week, but will that critical acclaim translate into box office success in a genre (horror/thrillers) whose devotees seem to pay little heed to the critics, who tend to underrate genre offerings?

Next weekend the summer movie season begins in earnest with the release of Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 and the only suspense about what happens at the box office will concern the size of Vol. 2’s opening—and it had better be big. In fact all the summer “event” films had better be “front-loaded,” because there will be one opening almost every weekend through the middle of August.  There’s no more giving a surefire box office winner some breathing space for a weekend after it opens, and there will be carnage because not all these expensive films will succeed.  2017 will see the release of 35 big budget “event” films, up from 27 in 2016, and with 41 planned for 2018 the situation will only get worse.  This is why we have seen big budget films released in February, March, and April, and why all this summer’s “event” films will face stiff competition, both from holdovers, and from the next “big thing” that debuts in the following week. Be sure to check back here all summer, it should be an interesting spectacle to watch.