So far at least Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 is behaving like a typical first Marvel movie sequel. The last four of those have averaged second weekend declines of 57.4%, and Guardians, Vol.2 is right on pace with a 57% drop as it earned $63 million to bring its domestic total to $246.2 million. In just 10 days of release Guardians, Vol. 2 has leapfrogged to second place on the 2017 domestic releases list, whizzing past The Fate of the Furious, and trailing only Beauty and the Beast’s massive $493 million haul.
Note that while Guardians, Vol. 2 has passed The Fate of the Furious here in North America, Gunn’s Marvel space opera has a global total of $630.6 million, far behind Furious 8’s $1.2 billion total. The big difference—Furious 8 has earned just 18% of its total here in North America, while Guardians has assembled nearly 40% of its total on these shores. Guardians, Vol. 2 is unlikely to ever match Furious 8’s global total—and the big reason is China where Guardians has made $80.5 million, a solid showing, but far short of The Fate of the Furious’ record $384 million haul in the Middle Kingdom.
In a surprise, second place went to the R-rated comedy, Snatched, which stars Amy Schumer and Goldie Hawn as a mother and daughter who are kidnapped in Ecuador. What must have seemed like an inspired bit of counter-programming, still didn’t perform as well as expected. Schumer’s previous effort, Trainwreck, opened with $30 million, not quite twice the $17.5 million opening for Snatched. As might be expected, females made up 77% of the opening weekend audience for Snatched, and 51% of the crowd was in Schumer’s demographic “sweet spot,” between 18 and 34 years old. Caucasians made up 64% of the audience, while Hispanics accounted for 16%, African-Americans for 10%, and Asians 6%.
Comedies do tend to hang on longer than all but the most successful action pictures, but working against Snatched are its low ratings from the critics (just 36% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), and the “so-so” “B” CinemaScore that audiences gave the film.
Guy Ritchie’s King Arthur: Legend of the Sword was supposed to provide strong immediate competition for Guardians, Vol. 2, but it turned out to be cinematic roadkill instead. With a production cost of $175 million, this new Arthurian epic is in deep trouble. Last year Warner Bros. released a similarly costly Tarzan movie, which opened with $38.5 million here in North America, earned $356.7 million worldwide, and still lost money for the studio. King Arthur could manage only $14.7 million in its domestic opening. Guardians Vol.2 made more money on last Friday ($16.4 million) than King Arthur was able to pull out of the stone all weekend.
It also does not appear that overseas markets will bail out King Arthur. Richie’s Arthurian saga, which is filled with anachronisms and clunky dialogue, only managed to bring $29.1 million from 51 overseas markets with China ponying up just $5.1 million. Males made up 60% of the North American audience for the film, and they gave the movie an “OK” “B+” CinemaScore, the lone strand of hope in what appears to be a doomsday tapestry for this piece of Arthurian schlock. Legend of the Sword was supposed to be the first film in a 5-6 movie franchise (Guinevere doesn’t even appear in this “origin" saga), but don’t count on any sequels for this DOA historical epic.
Warner Bros. considered at least four other launch dates for King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, and while it looks like a stretch to imagine the movie earning back its cost no matter when it was released, it is hard to imagine it doing any worse than it did with the launch in the immediate wake of Guardians, Vol. 2. Expect more of this kind of box office carnage as the rest of the summer unfolds. In 2016 the studios released 27 big budget would-be blockbusters, and this year there are 35 with 41 planned for 2018, so the box office cannibalism is only going to get worse.
The dollars dropped off quickly after the first three spots on the chart. The Fate of the Furious ($5.3 million), The Boss Baby ($4.6 million), and Beauty and the Beast ($3.9 million) are all on the downside of very successful box office runs.
The big trend in the lower half of the charts is represented by films that target very specific audiences. Blumhouse/Tilt, which has scored major successes with horror film releases Split and Get Out so far in 2017, opened Lowriders, which was designed to appeal to Hispanic audiences, in just 318 theaters, and it put up the second best per-venue average in the top ten ($8,180), second only to Guardians, Vol.2 ($14.494).
Lowriders was edged out by How To Be A Latin Lover, now in its third weekend of presenting the comedy of Eugenio Derbez in both English and Spanish, while the Southern Indian “Tollywood” fantasy epic Baahubali 2: The Confession also remained in the top ten for a third weekend despite being in just 375 theaters.
We can expect more modestly-produced films that target specific audiences, along with more big-budget efforts attempting to grab the increasing elusive “brass ring” in the future. The rapid rise of serious TV productions adapting novels and exploring ideas that used to provide fodder for “serious movies,” is just another market force that is pushing the studios towards producing both more spectacles that play well in the increasingly important overseas markets, as well as more modest films that target audiences that are underserved by American TV outlets.
Be sure to check back here next Sunday to see if the next would-be blockbuster, Ridley Scott’s Alien Covenant, which is currently tracking for something in the neighborhood of a $30 million debut, can dethrone Guardians, or if Fox’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul can sustain that franchise, and if Warner Brother’s YA novel adaptation Everything, Everything can help the studio bounce back from the dismal debut of King Arthur: The Legend of the Sword.
