While analysts were predicting that the new Predator movie would debut north of $30 million, it actually earned an estimated $24 million, which is less than the 2010 Predators film that bowed with $24.7 million (which is about $30 million, when adjusted for inflation). Certainly there were extraneous factors at play this weekend, the huge hurricane that hit the Carolinas, and a controversy that erupted prior to the film’s debut (perhaps it would have been a good idea for Black to have alerted the cast and crew to the fact that he had hired a registered sex offender—though the traction this story received outside the industry is difficult to gauge), but The Predator’s lackluster debut appears to have revealed a “weak” franchise with a dwindling fan base.
The Predator opened in over 4,000 theaters and delivered the worst opening ever for a film bowing in that many locations, blowing away the old record held by The Mummy, which debuted with $31.6 million last summer.
Recent films in the Predator and Aliens franchises have been very front-loaded, and now analysts are predicting that The Predator will earn just a bit over twice its $24 million debut during its entire domestic run. With a critical rating of just 34% positive on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, and a lousy “C+” CinemaScore from opening weekend audiences, it won’t be easy for The Predator to earn much over $50 million here in North America. The film’s demographics certainly hint at a Predator fan base that is overwhelmingly male (62%), older (66% over 25), and, given the size of The Predator debut, shrinking.
With a cost of $88 million (about twice that of its predecessors) The Predator will have to do major damage overseas. So far it’s not happening. The Predator debuted in 72 overseas markets and earned just $30.7 million, losing the foreign box office weekly crown to The Nun, which brought in $33 million.
The Nun, which is the latest film in The Conjuring franchise, set a franchise record for the biggest opening last weekend, and this weekend it set a record for the franchise’s steepest decline as it fell 66%, delivering $18.2 million to drive its domestic total to $85 million. While the second week drop indicates some dissatisfaction with the film, which could possibly damage the franchise in the long run, The Nun cost only $22 million to produce and has already $228.7 million globally.
The only one of this week’s new films to perform above expectations was Paul Feig’s neo-noir, black comedy thriller A Simple Favor, which debuted with $16 million. This R-rated thriller with a plot full of twists and surprises, targets adult women with its tale of a housewife/vlogger who turns detective when her best friend goes missing. A Simple Favor cost just $20 million to produce, and hopes to become this year’s Gone Girl.
Critics, who gave A Simple Favor an 84% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, may have liked the film a bit better than audiences, who awarded the film an OK “B+” CinemaScore, but word of mouth should be strong enough to render the film a box office success, though its chances of becoming a Gone Girl-type hit appear remote.
|
Weekend Box Office (Studio Estimates): September 14-16, 2018 |
||||||
|
Film |
Weekend Gross |
Screens |
Avg./Screen |
Total Gross |
Wk# |
|
|
1 |
The Predator |
$24,000,000 |
4,037 |
$5,945 |
$24,000,000 |
1 |
|
2 |
The Nun |
$18,200,000 |
3,876 |
$4,696 |
$85,076,325 |
2 |
|
3 |
A Simple Favor |
$16,050,000 |
3,102 |
$5,174 |
$16,050,000 |
1 |
|
4 |
White Boy Rick |
$8,800,000 |
2,504 |
$3,514 |
$8,800,000 |
1 |
|
5 |
Crazy Rich Asians |
$8,700,000 |
3,385 |
$2,570 |
$149,551,904 |
5 |
|
6 |
Peppermint |
$6,070,000 |
2,980 |
$2,037 |
$24,245,804 |
2 |
|
7 |
The Meg |
$3,805,000 |
2,851 |
$1,335 |
$137,087,190 |
6 |
|
8 |
Searching |
$3,200,000 |
2,009 |
$1,593 |
$19,621,103 |
4 |
|
9 |
Unbroken: Path to Redemption |
$2,350,000 |
1,620 |
$1,451 |
$2,350,000 |
1 |
|
10 |
Mission: Impossible - Fallout |
$2,315,000 |
1,761 |
$1,315 |
$216,135,337 |
8 |
This week’s other wide release, the 1980s drug saga White Boy Rick, earned $8.8 million from over 2,500 theaters. This $29 million production received a poor “B” CinemaScore from opening weekend audiences, and appears to be in trouble, especially given the slick widespread ad campaign that Sony created for the film. Unless Matthew McConaughey earns an Oscar nomination for another of his colorful lowlife portrayals, White Boy Rick doesn’t appear likely to hang around theaters for too long.
So close to White Boy Rick that their final order won’t be known until tomorrow is John M. Chu’s Crazy Rich Asians, which earned an estimated $8.7 million to bring its domestic total to almost $150 million, making it the most successful romantic comedy produced by Hollywood in the past nine years.
Still chomping away after six weekends in theaters, Warner Bros.’ shark fantasy The Meg dropped just 38% as it earned $3.8 million to bring its domestic total to $137.1 million. It has done much better overseas, and its global total (like that of Hotel Transylvania 3 (now #17 on this weekend’s chart) has just gone over $500 million.
This week’s other new wide release, the faith-themed Unbroken: Path to Redemption, debuted poorly at #9 with just $2.3 million.
In tenth place Mission: Impossible—Fallout earned $2.3 million to bring its domestic total to a franchise record (not adjusted for inflation) of $216.1 million. Fallout already has the franchise global record with $761 million.
Be sure to check back here next weekend to see if the “PG” rated horror film The House With a Clock in Its Walls, or Dan Foeglman’s romantic comedy drama Life Itself, or the Michael Moore documentary Fahrenheit 11/9 can make much of an impression on the September box office.
