As promised last week, here are my predictions for 2023 (See “Reflecting On My 2022 Predictions”).
2. RPG companies will capitalize on WotC OGL pain. Other companies, wanting to take advantage of WotC’s misstep on the OGL, have announced OGLs and an ORC (Open RPG Creative License) of their own (see "Paizo Leads Game Company Revolt Against OGL Changes"). While there has been a lot of interest in alternative systems this week (Paizo’s website was overloaded with demand for downloads of Pathfinder 2E materials and Kenzer & Co. saw downloads of Hackmaster Basic triple from the previous week), I do not expect demand for ORC licensed products to account for single digit sales by the end of the year simply because players, for the most part, do not care who produces their game products. They want to play D&D and the first products they will buy are those with the D&D logo on them. Other OGL 1.0 products sell but not with the frequency of a D&D-branded product. While the publishers making materials either under the ORC or another open license do have a fan base, they do not necessarily command customer loyalty or demand at the same level that D&D does.
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves"), but this prediction is based on reading The Hollywood Reporter for several years. The Hollywood Reporter has pointed out for several years that there are two types of movies currently successful at the box office: tentpole movies and small budget independent films.
4. Inflation will get near 3%. Inflation will keep dropping through the year and will get close to 3% by the end of 2023. Inflation is down to 6.5% now, the sixth month in a row it has declined. Barring some major economic disruption, it should continue to fall, though likely will not reach the 2% mark the Fed wants until 2024.
5. WotC will release more player-targeted D&D books. Back to WotC based on what the company said during their fireside chat, feeling that D&D is under-monetized and that most products target DMs while ignoring the much larger player market (see "D&D Fireside Chat and RIP Kim Mohan"), I expect to see more products targeted at players this year, especially given the rumor that WotC will pull the D&D license from Gale Force 9. We did see quite a few player books for 3E and aids for 4E from WotC but nothing from the company so far. I expect that to change in 2023.
Check back in January 2024 to see how well I did.
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