As expected Disney/Walden Media’s Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian took the top spot at the weekend box office, but with an estimated total of $56.5 million, well below the $80-$90 million forecasts of box office analysts and significantly under the $65.6 million that the first Narnia film earned during its first frame in December of 2005.  Disney did a wonderful job of marketing the first film (and its Christian allegorical elements) with religious groups and The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe demonstrated great “legs” and eventually earned a whopping $291 million at the domestic box office.  While Caspian’s inauspicious debut may have Disney sweating, the film could well redeem itself by holding strong over the coming Memorial Day weekend, but it will face strong competition from the new Indiana Jones film. 

Reports indicate that the audience for Caspian liked the film giving it a CinemaScore of A-, and it appears that the film appealed to both young and old and both men and women with near 50/50 ratio for those over and under 25 and a close to even gender split.  While the film’s opening has to be seen as something of a disappointment, it should be noted that Prince Caspian’s bow trails only Iron Man’s stellar debut among 2008 releases.

Meanwhile Marvel Studio’s Iron Man has demonstrated its own cast iron “legs,” dropping just 39% in its third weekend at the box office earning an estimated $31.2 million and bringing its domestic cumulative to a whopping $222.5 million.  Iron Man’s third weekend performance was actually better than Spider-Man 3, which earned just $29.1 million during its third frame last year.  Iron Man is now #7 on the list of superhero films and before its run is done the first Marvel Studio’s film will undoubtedly move up to the #4 spot trailing only the three Spider-Man films.

At the other end of the success/failure spectrum sits Warner Bros.’ Speed Racer, which earned just an estimated $7.6 million during its second weekend at the box office thanks to a paltry $2,120 per theater average.  Speed Racer, which cost north of $120 million to produce, has earned just $24 million so far.  DVD looks like to only arena in which this film now has a chance to recoup its cost—it’s definitely running on fumes theatrically and stands to lose a lot of screens this week with the debut of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

Overall the box office total for the top ten films was down an embarrassing 27% when compared with the same weekend last year, when Shrek 3 debuted.  It’s way too early to push the Tinseltown panic button, but with Speed Racer crashing and burning and Prince Caspian off to an inauspicious start, the Hollywood moguls are hoping that the fourth Indiana Jones film can salvage, what, with the sole exception of Iron Man, has been a very disappointing start to the summer movie season.