Although a top Warner Bros. executive told The Hollywood Reporter on Sunday that the studio was going ahead with plans for a sequel (see “Warner Bros. Planning Second Green Lantern Film”), a studio spokesman told THR on Monday that no decision on a second film had been reached.  Warner Bros. now faces the difficult task of figuring out what sort of earnings that Martin Campbell’s Green Lantern needs to make in order to make a sequel practical.

 

It is not a question of whether or not Green Lantern will break even. It is a foregone conclusion that the film will loose money--it’s just a question of how much.  According to The Hollywood Reporter the film “had a budget well in excess of $200 million as well as an outsized marketing spend estimated at $100 million domestic and $75 million foreign.”  The trade paper quotes an inside source indicating that the film may have cost “well over $400 million,” which means that it would have to take in $800 million at the box office to break even.  So far it has earned $118.4 million worldwide, and most analysts don’t see it bringing in much over $270 million tops (and that number only works if it does a lot better than its anemic showing overseas indicates so far).

 

Why in the face of this sea of red ink would the studio want to proceed with a sequel?  The lure of a new comic book franchise that could replace a portion of the studio’s earnings from the Harry Potter films is very strong.  Also the heavy lifting, marketing-wise, involving introducing a little known character to a worldwide audience has been done.  Then there is the lure of all those ancillary revenues from a successful franchise including licensed merchandise (DC did create a major licensed merchandise program, see “A First Look at Green Lantern Movie Toys”), animated series (like the new Green Lantern series set to debut on the Cartoon Network next year), video games, and even theme park rides.

 

Then there is the possibility that the studio could get it right the second time around and produce a better film for less money.  Michael Goldenberg is working on the script for a sequel, but that kind of development is pretty routine with a potential franchise.  While a second trip to Oa doesn’t appear as unlikely as a look at Green Lantern’s grosses might indicate, it is far from a sure thing in spite of the studio’s ardent desire to duplicate the Green Lantern’s comic book success on the big screen.  It may all boil down to whether Campbell’s Green Lantern film can shed the label of “bomb” and rise to the level of a “disappointment.”