Oath of the Gatewatch has been an interesting Magic: The Gathering set to watch.  Completing the previous release, Battle for Zendikar, in the new two-set block format Wizards of the Coast is using, Oath takes off in directions players didn’t expect.  The radical design addition of colorless mana alongside the balance of Zendikar Expeditions—bonus, foil-only reprints of powerful lands—drove significant interest in the set despite several leaks at the end of 2015.

Leading up to the Prerelease, expectations for several cards drove sales:

Top 10 OGW Cards by Sales Volume (12/30/15 - 1/15/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Thought-Knot Seer	$6.16
2	Stormchaser Mage	$1.68
3	Oath of Nissa	$4.97
4	Eldrazi Mimic	$1.18
5	Reality Smasher	$4.72
6	Goblin Dark-Dwellers	$2.60
7	Stoneforge Masterwork	$1.08
8	Jori En, Ruin Diver	$1.91
9	Wastes (184 Full Art)	$0.51
10	Wandering Fumarole	$3.55

.

Top 10 OGW Cards by Dollar Volume (12/30/15 - 1/15/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Kozileks Return	$14.93
2	Thought-Knot Seer	$6.16
3	Kozilek, the Great Distortion	$15.52
4	Nissa, Voice of Zendikar	$19.57
5	Oath of Nissa	$4.97
6	Reality Smasher	$4.72
7	Chandra, Flamecaller	$13.01
8	Matter Reshaper	$7.05
9	Mirrorpool	$6.02
10	Eldrazi Displacer	$5.40

Thought-Knot Seer was a leader both by individual volume and total dollar volume sold, followed closely Oath of Nissa and Reality Smasher.  As usual, expensive mythic rares led preordering revenue, while interesting non-rares pushed into the largest counts sold.

Between the Prerelease and Pro Tour, the set’s competitive leads were vetted as players dug into the whole set. TCGplayer.com observed that sales volume for Oath cards peaked on Saturday, January 23 in sync with the first competitive results after release.

The second bump in sales on February 5 is due to Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, which we’ll look at more closely in a moment.  Here again are the top cards by sales and dollar volume:

Top 10 OGW Cards by Sales Volume (1/16/15 - 2/4/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Wastes (184 Full Art)	$0.67
2	Reflector Mage	$0.97
3	Sylvan Advocate	$2.86
4	Stormchaser Mage	$2.21
5	Eldrazi Displacer	$3.75
6	Wastes (183 Full Art)	$0.62
7	Goblin Dark-Dwellers	$3.51
8	Thought-Knot Seer	$11.90
9	Reckless Bushwhacker	$0.31
10	Matter Reshaper	$4.66

.

Top 10 OGW Cards by Dollar Volume (1/16/15 - 2/4/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Thought-Knot Seer	$11.90
2	Kozileks Return	$15.93
3	Nissa, Voice of Zendikar	$14.39
4	Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet	$8.68
5	Chandra, Flamecaller	$9.55
6	Reality Smasher	$5.22
7	Eldrazi Displacer	$3.75
8	Matter Reshaper	$4.66
9	World Breaker	$8.00
10	Kozilek, the Great Distortion	$15.25

More non-rares made their way into the top sales volume, and the mix of non-rares and rares were typically driven by their need in the new competitive landscape for Magic.  However, copies of both versions of Wastes continued strong as players looking to use the new colorless effects needed the new basic land en masse. Mythics also continued to dominate the largest pieces of revenue, but new cards like Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet appeared as their competitive utility was proven.

After the wave of effect due to Standard’s results, Modern made movement thanks to the success of Oath cards at the Pro Tour.  During the weekend six of the eight decks, including both the finalist and winner’s, used cards from Oath.  The result was the second spike in sales volume as well as another shift in the top revenue volume of cards afterwards:

Top 10 OGW Cards by Sales Volume (2/4/15 - 2/15/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Eldrazi Obligator	$0.85
2	Eldrazi Mimic	$4.09
3	Reality Smasher	$6.20
4	Thought-Knot Seer	$13.24
5	Matter Reshaper	$4.88
6	Endbringer	$0.60
7	Wastes (184 Full Art)	$1.13
8	Corrupted Crossroads	$0.63
9	Oath of Jace	$0.38
10	Sea Gate Wreckage	$1.89

.

Top 10 OGW Cards by Dollar Volume (2/4/15 - 2/15/16)
Rank	Card	Avg. Price
1	Thought-Knot Seer	$13.24
2	Reality Smasher	$6.20
3	Eldrazi Mimic	$4.09
4	Matter Reshaper	$4.88
5	Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet	$15.13
6	Eldrazi Displacer	$3.83
7	Kozileks Return	$10.04
8	Chandra, Flamecaller	$9.98
9	Sylvan Advocate	$4.90
10	Nissa, Voice of Zendikar	$10.50

The ban of Splinter Twin from Modern opened the gates to aggressive decks of all stripes, but the most unexpected and powerful ones to appear were based around creatures from Oath of the Gatewatch in conjunction with older “Eldrazi lands” that effectively cheated powerful cards into play.  The core pieces of the Modern Eldrazi decks drove both sales volumes and revenue as players quickly reacted to the apparent new best deck.

One interesting wrinkle is the sustained volume for Wastes. While the preference for the art by Raymond Swanland on card 184 over Jason Felix’s on card 183 is up to the individual, Wastes overall move at a steady, brisk pace. Once the set is replaced for Limited by Shadows Over Innistrad in April, sustained demand for Wastes may make it more difficult (expensive) for players to acquire.

With strong purchasing behavior on multiple fronts it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a steadier average card price across the set. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case:








The trend line shows the typical decrease in average card price for the set as a whole as price corrections from expectations and changing demand played out.  The Pro Tour made a significant change in the short term around its weekend but the latest information shows a return to mean.

It’s unclear whether the average price has hit its floor. Post-Pro Tour set performance is typically more stable than not, trending downward over time.  Even two successful weekends for the newest Magic cards wasn’t enough to buck the historical pricing trend.

Adam Styborski is Content Director at TCGplayer.com. TCGplayer.com is the largest collectible card marketplace on the web, with hundreds of brick and mortar sellers listed.

The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial staff of ICv2.com.