New Line's The Golden Compass won the weekend box office derby but only managed to earn a tepid $26.1 million, below even Beowulf's $27.5 million debut in November. For the second weekend in a row the top ten films earned less than $70 million, continuing a general downward trend that began this fall in contrast to
The Golden Compass' disappointing opening doesn't indicate that the film is necessarily a failure. Other pricy fantasy films such as Disney's Chronicles of Narnia and New Line's Lord of the Rings trilogy, which were all released during December, managed to demonstrate considerable staying power at the box office. But with the cost of The Golden Compass reported to be in the $180 to 200 million, it won't be easy for this film to be a success -- its opening was certainly the smallest for any big budget blockbuster film released this year.
While the film's lackluster opening shouldn't have much effect on collector-targeted merchandise like Inkworks' The Golden Compass Trading Cards, it could have far-reaching effects on New Line and on the fantasy genre in general. If the film doesn't make money worldwide, New Line will not film the next two films in the trilogy.
The Golden Compass director Chris Weitz (About a Boy, In Good Company) also has the rights to the Elric saga. If The Golden Compass and the subsequent films in the His Dark Materials trilogy (based on the fantasy novels by Phillip Pullman) had been successful, big budget Elric movies would most likely have followed.
Meanwhile Beowulf, which definitely felt the impact of the opening of The Golden Compass, fell to #5 during its fourth weekend in theaters earning $4.4 million and bringing its domestic cumulative to nearly $76 million. With an estimated cost of $150 million, Beowulf will have to continue to do well overseas, where it has earned $91.6 million already, to reach profitability (since the rule of thumb is that a film needs to earn double its cost at the box office to actually make money -- profitability for Beowulf will likely not come until it appears on DVD).
