With a fourth quarter loaded with major DVD releases, the Hollywood studios were hoping to reverse a slumping sales trend that has been evident throughout 2007, but so far only Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Transformers, both of which sold over eight million units during their first week of release, have been able to replicate their box office success on DVD. While Shrek the Third and Spider-Man 3 have sold millions, they have both lagged behind projections. Meanwhile with several potential DVD blockbusters debuting every week (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, High School Musical 2, and The Bourne Ultimatum were all released last week), it appears that the studios may be cannibalizing their own sales by stuffing so many titles into the fourth quarter.
According to the market research mavens at NPD, the softness in the DVD market, which has been especially evident in specialty categories such as anime where illegal downloading is a major factor (see 'Sparks Fly at ICv2 Anime/Manga Conference' and 'Anime Releases Tumble'), is the result of a maturing market. According to NPD the average DVD household now has an 80-title library and consumers are pickier when it comes to adding additional movies. NPD research quoted in Video Business shows that only about 24-25% of those surveyed had purchased a DVD in the past 30 days, a percentage that has dropped from a high of 28.6% in 2005.
The slump in DVD sales has been exacerbated by the fact that no new hot category has arrived since the rise of the 'TV on DVD' phenomenon a few years ago. With many of the hottest TV series already out on DVD, more of the burden falls on theatrical movies to drive overall DVD sales, though the broadening of categories such as TV on DVD to include more obscure cult series does provide some opportunities for independent retailers.
As is typical in a maturing market, the actual product itself is being perfected even as the public's interest in it begins to wane. Case in point is Dreamwork's Shrek the Third DVD (MSRP $29.99), which features a superb transfer of the film that earned a whopping $321 million at the domestic box office, yet was considered something of a 'disappointment' on DVD when it only sold an estimated 1.5 million units on its first day of release. Not only does the DVD of the film look great, it also contains a wealth of extra features, some of which like 'Shrek's Guide to Parenthood' are almost as funny as the movie itself. With 'Lost Scenes,' Artie's Yearbook,' and features on the 'Tech of Shrek' and 'Donkey Dancing' as well as a great 'Shmash Up' feature where fans can make their own video, this is a DVD that is infinitely superior in pictures, sound and extras to the original Shrek disk from 2001 though it is not likely to sell nearly as many units as the first film.
The excellence of contemporary DVDs is clearly evident this year, which was dominated by 'threequels,' when comparing the latest film in the series' DVD with that of the first movie in the series. The new Pirates DVD, which may well turn out to be the bestselling disc of this highly competitive fourth quarter, is available is a superb two-disc version (MSRP $34.95). While the third Pirates film didn't do nearly as well as its predecessor at the domestic box office (though it still took home $309 million), the DVD of this most epic film in the trilogy has gotten off to a great start selling 8 million copies during its first week. The two-disc version contains a number of superb extras including a must-see mini-documentary based on the behind-the-scenes interactions of Keith Richards and Johnny Depp, a raft of deleted scenes, a spectacular breakdown of the Maelstrom scene, some great bloopers, and features on the film's design and music. Whereas in the early days of DVD the first edition would be a barebones affair, today the DVDs are planned along with the film and initial releases include lots of well-conceived extras eliminating to a large extent the 'double-dipping' that was so common in the medium's early days when a barebones release would be followed in six months to a year by a new version replete with extras.
Though the TV on DVD category is also maturing, it remains the most profitable one next to theatrical releases and demonstrates a similar perfection of the product. One of the best examples of the potential of the category is Disney's High School Musical 2. The 'Mouse House' had the temerity to release HSM 2 on the same day that the new Harry Potter and The Bourne Ultimatum debuted, a calculated gamble, but one that is likely to pay off. The HSM 2 DVD contains plenty of features aimed at getting an audience that may have already seen the made-for-TV film several times on cable to purchase the disc including a new musical sequence along with a host of extras including a karaoke feature that will certainly get plenty of use. The secret behind the success of this slickly-produced, bright and lively production is easy to deduce -- it's good clean musical fun that has enormous appeal, not to high school students, but to grade schoolers, particularly girls, who are ill-served by a marketplace primarily dedicated to producing entertainment for preteen boys. With Hannah Montana and the High School Musical made for TV features, Disney owns this niche.
Like High School Musical 2, which set all sorts of ratings records when it aired, ABC's Lost is a potent property with a devoted, cult-like audience. The recently released Lost: The Complete Third Season (MSRP $59.99) contains a whopping 991 minutes of content including over six hours of bonus features. A serial drama with a compelling (if sometimes confusing) uber-narrative, Lost features an attractive and talented cast. The Season 3 box set allows viewers to explore all 23 third season episodes, and with the extras it actually provides answers to at least some of the various enigmas that have made this series so compelling for so long--adding value to the Lost viewing experience and giving fans a real reason to pick up this season of one of their favorite shows.
While HSM 2 and Lost are modern properties that will be highly discounted in the mass market, Mission Impossible and The Wild Wild West are series that aired during the 1960s and have managed to hold on to a following even after four decades.
Like Mission Impossible, The Wild Wild West was heavily influenced by Ian Fleming's James Bond novels and their gimmicky spycraft, but unlike the very serious Mission Impossible, The Wild Wild West accentuated the humorous side of espionage (that Fleming also relished). Set in the post-Civil War era, The Wild Wild West anticipated 'steam punk' science fiction with its outlandish 19th Century inventions, and with solid performances from Robert Conrad and Ross Martin, the series remains a lot of fun. The third season of The Wild Wild West was actually grittier than the previous two, sporting as it does at times the violent influence of spaghetti western maestro Sergio Leone. Fans of the series should be forewarned that this box contains just one 'Doctor Loveless' episode, but it does have wealth of great guest stars including Nick Adams, Robert Duvall, Ed Asner, Anthony Zerbe, and John McGiver, to name just a few.
Neither Mission Impossible: The Third Season nor The Wild Wild West: Season 3 (MSRP $49.99) contains any extras to speak of, but unlike many earlier compilations of decades-old TV material that featured murky transfers that made their vintage contents look horribly dated, both of these box sets present superbly re-mastered versions of these classic series that manage to look very good on modern HD TV sets. Fans of these vintage series can't ask for much more.
