In spite of its debut, which was a notch below the $60-65 million that was expected, Ant-Man is fairly well-positioned to develop strong "legs" over the next few weeks, though it looks doubtful that the lighthearted Ant-Man can duplicate the late summer box office heroics that Marvel’s equally breezy Guardians of the Galaxy displayed last year. While Ant-Man can’t match Guardians’ sterling 92% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the Paul Rudd-starring mini-hero saga currently has a very good (for a superhero film) rating of 79% positive—and opening weekend audiences gave the film an "A" CinemaScore.
Ant-Man drew an audience that was 58% male, and families made up 28% of the audience. Ant-Man (like Guardians) is one of the most kid-friendly Marvel Studios productions, and that fact should help it stay in theaters though it will face a ton of competition in coming weeks from family fare like Pixels and PG-13 action movies like Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, The Man From Uncle, and The Fantastic Four.
It is likely that Ant-Man will turn out to be a “hit” on a smaller scale than Marvel Studios has become accustomed to in “Phase 2” of its movie program, which began with The Avengers. But Ant-Man cost less than the average Marvel movie ($130 million versus $150 million for the ill-fated 2008 Hulk movie), and it is already doing very well overseas where it earned $56.4 million from 37 markets and performed much better than the first Captain America and Thor films. But with Marvel Studios planning films based on Doctor Strange, Black Panther and Captain Marvel, there are bound to be more Marvel films that are only modest hits; though one of those properties could bust out like Guardians did, it’s impossible to tell at this time, which (if any) of them will do it. It is still too early even to classify Ant-Man, though its debut indicates that the film is likely to become a “hit” of different order of magnitude than Marvel Studios is used to producing.
Last week’s box office champ Minions dropped 56.6%, a bit steep for an animated hit, but then Ant-Man made a strong play for the family audience. However with its massive opening last week, that drop still meant that Minions brought in $50.2 million and drove its domestic total to $216.7 million in just ten days. That massive domestic total however represents just 34.6% of the film’s worldwide haul of $625.8 million.
This week’s other major debut was the Amy Schumer-starring R-rated romcom Trainwreck, which benefited from Schumer’s increasingly high profile cable presence that translated into loads of press coverage for the film. With a $30.2 million debut Trainwreck, which earned an "A-" CinemaScore, has a chance to be that R-rated comedy hit of the summer, if Schumer’s appeal holds up and broadens a bit. Trainwreck attracted an audience that was 66% female and 63% over 30. In spite of the presence of NBA star Lebron James, Trainwreck’s audience was only 7% African-American, while Caucasians made up a whopping 74% with Hispanics at 12% and Asian-Americans at 5%.
Fourth place went to Pixar’s Inside Out, which slipped 34% as it earned $11.7 million and brought its domestic total to $306.4 million. With some luck Inside Out could surpass Finding Nemo’s total of $339 million (though not if ticket price inflation is figured in).
This weekend Jurassic World passed Furious 7 and the $1.5 billion mark worldwide to become the highest-grossing film of 2015 so far, and with a domestic total of $611 million, it should surpass The Avengers (623 million) to become the highest-grossing film in the domestic market not directed by James Cameron (and of course not adjusted for inflation). Still it is now clear that Jurassic Park is the film to beat in 2015, and that it earning more than this Universal remake will be no easy task.
There is no such good news for Paramount, as Terminator: Genisys fell 61% in its third weekend as it earned a mere $5.4 million bringing its domestic total to $80.6 million. Yes the film has earned 69% of its worldwide total overseas, but will Paramount really think about a sequel if Genisys fails to make $100 million here in the States? Given that the studios’ share of foreign earnings is much less than the 50% or so they get from the North American box office, doing well overseas is not the same as posting a strong domestic performance.
Magic Mike XXL won’t come close to the success of its predecessor, but its low production cost means that the film is already doing well enough that a sequel could be in the offing if Channing Tatum is so inclined. The same hold true for the micro-budgeted horror film The Gallows, which cost less than a million, but has earned $18 million at the box office. No such luck for Seth Mcfarlane’s Ted 2, which should mercifully put an end to that overblown excuse for a comedy franchise.
The tenth spot went to Mr. Holmes, a film that stars Ian McKellen (X-Men’s Magneto) as an aging Sherlock Holmes. In spite of being in just 363 theaters, Mr. Holmes earned $2.5 million, which was good enough to make the top ten.
Be sure to check back here next week when a host of films including the boxing movie Southpaw, John Green’s Paper Towns, the thriller The Vatican Tapes, and the video game/action comedy Pixels all debut.
