Sharpening the Sword is a regular column by retailer John Riley, who owns Grasshopper's Comics, a 1300 square foot comic and game store in Williston Park, New York. In this column, Riley talks about the 2005 trends that are shaping his business.
Well, 2005 is over and here we are beginning 2006. I hope that 2005 was a very good year for you. It was definitely a strong year for us, although the fourth quarter I believe was weak for everyone. A manager at the local Best Buy told me his store only hit budget one day over the entire holiday season, and I believe that was pretty representative of holiday sales in general.
2005 was a year of gradual but important changes in our industry. So before we jump headlong into writing our Business Plan I thought I'd share with you some of the issues over the last year that concern me and that have helped shape the direction we're heading in 2006.
Marvel's Quality Starts to Slide
We've been very lucky to have been riding out a creative golden age of comics these past few years. But the quality of the majority of Marvel's titles has definitely dropped. Marvel has always produced its best books when they felt they had nothing to lose and were willing to take a chance. X-Men #94 was released at a time when the title had been in reprint. And Daredevil was bi-monthly and going to be cancelled before they gave it to Miller. We had some incredible output these past few years as Marvel took chances with titles that were in horrible slumps (e.g., Straczynski taking over Amazing Spider-Man). But as so often happens, once they reach a level of success, the publishers immediately try to establish a status quo and lose the initiative that got them there. As Ilan Strasser and Steve Bennett have pointed out, Marvel's publishing plans are a creative mystery. While a select group of their titles are simply incredible, they're all coming from their few powerhouse writers like Straczynski, Millar, Bendis and Ennis. Take these four away and I hate to imagine what the Marvel line would look like. The X-books are heading for yet another line-wide revamp and Marvel's mid-tier titles continue their long slide. Even the successful Ultimate line is showing weakness. History has shown that a healthy Marvel is a healthy retail environment, but as evidenced by Marvel's zealous embrace of variant covers, I think Marvel is going to slide more before it improves.
Small Publishers Disappear
The past two years we've lost a number of established small publishers. Crossgen is gone, along with Chaos and Dreamwave. While we've had some niche publishers appear it's clear that the industry isn't ready or willing to take on another 'mainstream' publisher, meaning for the most part we'll have to deal with what we've got.
Horror is this Year's Transformers
Just like the 80s nostalgia craze that came and went, it looks like horror comics have maxed themselves out. At one point it was hard to find a horror comic, now there are just too many for fans to commit to. I love zombie stories, but really how many do we need? It's great to have the genre available as a viable 'non-superhero' category for the general public, but ordering has grown much more complicated.
CCGs Fail to Fly
At the 2005 GAMA Trade Show I was struck by a new CCG at nearly every booth. We tried a bunch of them and from our experience and industry reports it appears that just about every single one was DOA in 2005. In addition, existing games like Decipher's WARS and Lord of the Rings games either died or dwindled into obscurity. While individual stores may have found success with a particular CCG, as an industry none seems to be a long-term breakout hit. Magic and VS. seem to have retained their markets but eBay and flea market pressure means that many retailers have to sell these at deep discounts. Personally, I believe that the CCG category may have run its course for the foreseeable future. Parents and players associate these games with a high maintenance cost and a short life span, making both reluctant to 'invest' in any new game under the current model.
Housing Prices Finally Hurt Us
I've been expecting it for a while, but it appears the housing market finally hit us where it hurts. We lost six good club members this year who either bought houses and no longer could afford their comic habit, or who moved away in order to be able to afford a house somewhere cheaper. With the rising cost of oil, especially heating oil here in the northeast, we will probably see more and more people cutting back.
MMORPGs Invade
I have met the enemy, and its name is Warcraft. It also goes by the names Star Wars Galaxies, Everquest, City of Heroes and a few others. Regardless of name, these games are addicting beyond anything we've ever seen before including 'Magic the Addiction'. While they were present the past few years, this year they seem to have taken over. We know many people who play forty hours or more a week and even saw one divorce as a result of this online addiction. What Magic was to teenagers a decade ago, these games are now. And while there's nothing inherently wrong with these games, their players generally seem to play them to the exclusion of everything else. I can honestly say that these games are my primary concern for the foreseeable future.
Changing Demographics
Whether we want to admit it or not our customers are getting older and are being replaced by customers with different experiences and different tastes. Some of our older readers may be 'retiring' soon, and trade paperbacks are becoming more and more important too many younger readers who dismiss any notion of collectability and focus just on enjoyment.
OK, well there are some of the key challenges I'm thinking about. Of course, this past year had its strengths as well:
Comic Movies Still Going Strong
Between the Sin City, Fantastic Four, and Batman Begins movies this was another banner year for increasing public consciousness of comic books. 2006 looks like it will continue the trend with X3 and others. Kids are once again aware of comic characters regardless of reading comics or not, meaning we can get them to enter the hobby in their teen years.
Comics Getting Their Due
With Time, the New York Times and Entertainment Weekly (among others) all devoting both space and respect to comics we continue to put pressure on the public's perception of comics.
Parents Computer Backlash
Many parents who were frustrated by their kids' addiction to their PS2s seem to have hit the wall with their kids' online role playing addiction. We've had many parents come in to purchase board or miniature games in an effort to get their kids off the computer and playing with other human beings. With kids obsessed with their cell phones, iPods, X-Boxes, and computers the environment is right to play up these 'old fashioned' hobbies.
DC Rises to the Forefront
I have no doubt that DC will be the #1 publisher in 2006. Their editorial plans are incredibly solid and their writing top notch across the board. Lots of Marvel fans are being wooed over to explore the other side of the fence and hopefully Marvel will respond with better books than Nick Fury and the Howling Commandoes.
Those are just some of the highlights of the past year that definitely play into how we're going to approach 2006. Maybe you share some of these challenges and I'm sure you have others. For me writing these down has been a good exercise in formalizing my thoughts before starting to write this year's Business Plan. I hope you take the time to sit down and write down some notes on what challenges your store faces this year. After all, if you don't know the enemy or the battlefield you're fighting on, it's impossible to devise a plan for victory.
