The introduction of Disney Lorcana into the TCG market potentially adds a few interesting new dynamics to the mix. The game, out of the gate, looks like it has the potential to be a substantial challenger to the dominance of the Big Three in the TCG space (see "The Big Three Rule Again"). It has the market recognition of being an officially licensed Disney product, the billion-dollar Disney Princesses brand is represented in the game, and of course, it benefits from the crazy money that the avid Disneyana collector base brings to the table (see "Big Money on eBay"). However, the introduction of this game into the market will likely not impact the sales of the Big Three all that much. The Big Three have had their fan bases pretty well cemented over decades, and their fans are steadfast at this point.
The real question is: What happens when the race to capture TCG customers goes from being a Big Three race into a Big Four?
It is more likely that Disney Lorcana TCG will expand the current pool of TCG customers but also put some level of a squeeze on the middle-tier of animation-based TCGs as it attracts more customers from other North American player bases. Disney Lorcana TCG should bring some brand-new customers into the mix, crossovers from the aforementioned Disneyana collector base and the fan base of the Disney animated movies, but they will likely also snare TCG players from the pools of other games.
All eyes will surely be on how the game's organized play program shapes up (see "'Disney Lorcana' Organized Play Program") to see whether or not players from others pools of TCGs gravitate toward Disney Lorcana. If their OP comes out strong and retailers engage on a significant level, this could put a hurt on the other animation-based TCGs that don't have particularly strong OP systems in North America and Europe. The Disney Lorcana team seems to be laser-focused on creating a solid organized play system as they have partnered with Melee to help facilitate this program (see "ICv2 Exclusive").
